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fxus65 kabq 212344 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
544 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

00z taf cycle

All taf sites over central and western nm are expected to remain VFR
through the period. Showers are possible in the 03-06z time frame
near ksaf, although confidence is on the lower end with respect to
timing. The tricker forecast is over eastern nm with lingering
showers through about 06z. Conditions look favorable for the
development of low clouds and fog this evening over southeast nm in the
06-12z range, so started to trend the tafs towards the introduction
of lower clouds. Confidence is low, but short range models are
hinting at potential MVFR or lower conditions at ktcc and krow and
amended forecasts may be required before the 06z package. A backdoor
front will be pushing southward over eastern nm and should reach
ktcc by about 14z before stalling. This front will mainly be a
windshift with clearing conditions.



Previous discussion...358 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019...
showers and thunderstorms will be focused across east central and
southeast New Mexico through the evening and potentially overnight.
A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out through sunset. For other
parts of the state, expect mostly clear skies. Chamber of Commerce
weather is anticipated on Sunday despite a backdoor front invading
the northeast and east Central Plains. The weather pattern turns a
bit complicated for the upcoming work week as a storm system in the
Pacific northwest moves into the Desert Southwest. Monday could be
unsettled across the area, with the best risk for precipitation on
Tuesday and Wednesday over the upper Gila region. This disturbance
may race across Arizona and New Mexico on Thursday.


21z Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis depicts a tongue of 500 to 1500 j/kg of MLCAPE
juxtaposed in an area of 35-45kts of 0-6km bulk shear, mainly across
Quay to eastern Chaves counties. As a result, some decent convection
has already erupted along the Texas border. The sref suggests the more
buoyant environment will shift east of the forecast area by 00z, and
this will reduce the risk for severe storms. As a precaution however,
opted to keep severe wording language in the zones through 03z. The
central zones, including abq and saf, could also see a stray shower
and/or gusty outflow winds prior to sunset, but confidence is meager
given how much drier the sounding profile is across this region. The
next forecast challenge will be whether patchy fog will develop over
the east central and southeast plains. While it did occur last night,
confidence in its occurrence is too low to include in zones attm. It
appears a few locations near the Colorado border within nmz516 could reach
32f, but the areal coverage is too small to warrant a freeze warning.

Trough axis will push east of the forecast area Sunday morning as a
backdoor front slides through the northeast/east Central Plains. The
limiting factor for precipitation will be a notably drier air mass.
For perspective, pwats will drop to 0.15" in the north and west and
0.66" across the southeast plains.

Models remain very consistent with energy diving southward into the
pacnw and closing off an upper low near Las Vegas/Nevada on Monday. This
should result in difluent flow aloft across western/northern nm with
gradual moisture advection. Opted to side with the 12z NAM and European model (ecmwf)
with regards to pops for Mon/Mon night. With that said, the GFS is a
bit further west with the upper low. If this materialize, the degree
of moisture advection and broad-scale ascent could be weaker across
nm. At the time of this writing, the 18z NAM is about 75 mi further
west than its previous run - and this may make all the difference in
the land of enchantment.

The GFS/European model (ecmwf) deterministic and ensemble members indicate the upper
low will dive to the northern Baja California peninsula or northwest
Mexico on tues. This is likely too far away to have an influence on
nm, although will maintain an elevated risk for pcpn in the upr Gila
region given uncertainty. There is decent consensus, at this time,
that a trough will dig into the northwest portion of the country for
midweek. This will allow the upr low in Mexico to weaken and become
an open wave as it migrates northeast towards Arizona and nm on Thursday.
Current pops may be a bit conservative, but there is plenty of time
to monitor its evolution. Dporter


Fire weather...
this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions with spotty
critical exist over the northwest plateau and northern portions of
the state while higher moisture remains over the southeastern plains
where better chances for wetting rain resides. Some storms over nmz-
108 east Central Plains could become severe this afternoon.
Ventilation rates tank Sunday as the flow aloft calms. Overnight
recoveries will be good to excellent over eastern nm tonight where
some patchy fog is again possible over The Caprock near Clovis in the
morning. Fair recoveries will remain over western nm. While
confidence is high that moisture will arrive Mon into Tue improving
humidity recoveries, confidence is low with regards to the associated
increase in wetting precipitation and thunderstorms. Models continue
a lack of run to run consistency with how and when a disturbance
will track across New Mexico. This should come into greater focus and
confidence in the next 24-36 hours. 24/rjh


Abq watches/warnings/advisories...

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