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fxus65 kabq 190931 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
331 am MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

..one last day of near record warmth today...

Synopsis...
monsoon moisture will begin to seep northward over New Mexico today
introducing some showers and thunderstorms over southern and eastern
areas. The increased precipitation and cloud cover will cause high
temperatures to begin to trend cooler, but many locations will have
one more day of near record readings. Some storms may produce wind
gusts near 50 mph with little or no rain this afternoon and evening.
Moisture will continue to improve through the middle of the week
enabling thunderstorms and cloud cover to become more widespread, and
temperatures to fall further while generally remaining above normal.
Drier air will begin to filter over the area from the northwest
Friday through the weekend with decreasing thunderstorm coverage and
a return of hot temperatures.

&&

Discussion...
the subtropical ridge began building over western Texas overnight, and
it will migrate northeastward over OK today. It will steer modest and
elevated monsoon moisture northward, initially over southern and
eastern parts of the forecast area today. This will lead to mainly
isolated showers and thunderstorms with increaed cloud cover, which
will cause temperatures to begin to trend downward. Nonetheless, much
of the forecast area should see one last day of near record warmth.
Some storms will produce gusty winds with little or no rain this
afternoon and early evening, because the low levels of the
atmosphere will still be quite dry.

Model 500 mb streamlines depict the center of anticyclonic
circulation aloft lingering around The Ark-la-tex area Tuesday and
Wednesday, before quickly repositioning over southern Arizona Wednesday
night as an upper level disturbance sags southeastward out of Colorado.
This will enable the monsoon moisture to get gradually Richer with
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms farther and farther
north and west Tuesday and Wednesday. The increased moisture, cloud
cover and precipitation coverage will allow temperatures to trend
downward with highs varying from near normal up to 8 degrees above
normal by Wednesday.

An upper level trough will pass eastward across the northern and
central rockies Thursday and Thursday night. This feature will
interact with recycled moisture over nm for another active day of
showers and thunderstorms, especially along and east of the
Continental Divide. In the wake of the trough, the upper high will
broaden and build over the Great Basin, and drier air will begin to
filter over nm from the northwest. As a result, Friday and Saturday
will feature a spottier crop of showers and thunderstorms favoring
southern and eastern parts of the forecast area both days. By Sunday
it should be dry enough for hardley any showers and
thunderstorms, except for perhaps some isolated cells over the
Southwest Mountains where modest moisture may linger. With the
downtick in precipitation and cloud cover, and a ridge axis extending
southeastward across nm, high temperatures will trend warmer Friday
through Sunday with readings around 5 to 12 degrees above normal by
Saturday.

44

&&

Fire weather...
a moistening trend will begin today as upper level high pressure
slides east into Texas and Oklahoma. The coverage of storms will
begin increasing over eastern nm with mainly dry storms along and
west of the Pecos River. Deeper moisture will push farther west to
the Central Mountain chain Tuesday and generate greater coverage of
storms with locally heavy rainfall over eastern nm. A mixture of
wet/dry storms are likely near the Central Mountain chain. Storm
motions will be slow and erratic. The greatest chance for storms
with locally heavy rainfall will be Wednesday as a weak disturbance
shifts south from Colorado. Moisture will begin scouring out of the
area Thursday however locally heavy rainfall is still likely for
parts of central and eastern nm. A much drier airmass with more near
record heat is expected once again Friday through the weekend.

Guyer

&&

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
mid and upper level cloud cover spreading north into nm tonight is a
signal of changes ahead as upper level high pressure moves east of
the area. Southerly winds will increase over the eastern half of nm
Monday with deeper moisture leading to isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain aft 20z.
The main focus for convection will be from ksrr to ktcc east into
West Texas through Monday evening. Any storms will produce brief rain
and strong outflow winds.

Guyer

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Farmington...................... 95 62 96 63 / 0 0 5 5
Dulce........................... 90 49 90 51 / 0 0 10 10
Cuba............................ 91 60 88 59 / 0 5 20 10
Gallup.......................... 92 54 92 56 / 0 0 10 10
El Morro........................ 87 54 86 54 / 0 5 20 20
Grants.......................... 90 57 88 56 / 5 5 20 20
Quemado......................... 87 58 87 58 / 5 10 30 20
Datil........................... 86 59 84 57 / 10 10 50 20
Glenwood........................ 95 68 94 67 / 0 0 30 10
Chama........................... 83 49 82 50 / 5 5 20 10
Los Alamos...................... 87 61 84 60 / 5 5 30 20
Pecos........................... 87 61 84 59 / 10 10 40 30
Cerro/Questa.................... 84 56 83 54 / 5 5 30 20
Red River....................... 75 48 74 47 / 10 5 40 30
Angel Fire...................... 79 44 77 43 / 20 10 50 30
Taos............................ 88 54 86 53 / 5 5 30 20
Mora............................ 85 53 82 52 / 20 10 60 30
Espanola........................ 94 62 91 60 / 0 5 20 20
Santa Fe........................ 88 62 85 61 / 5 10 30 30
Santa Fe Airport................ 91 61 88 59 / 0 5 20 20
Albuquerque foothills........... 95 67 91 65 / 0 5 20 30
Albuquerque heights............. 95 67 92 65 / 0 5 10 20
Albuquerque valley.............. 97 68 94 66 / 0 5 10 20
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 67 93 65 / 0 5 10 20
Los Lunas....................... 96 67 94 64 / 0 10 10 20
Rio Rancho...................... 96 67 93 65 / 0 5 10 20
Socorro......................... 99 68 96 66 / 0 5 30 30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 64 85 61 / 5 5 40 30
Tijeras......................... 91 64 88 62 / 5 5 40 30
Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 57 90 55 / 5 5 40 30
Clines Corners.................. 89 60 85 58 / 10 10 40 30
Gran Quivira.................... 90 60 88 59 / 10 5 40 40
Carrizozo....................... 93 66 91 64 / 20 10 40 30
Ruidoso......................... 85 59 83 58 / 30 20 60 30
Capulin......................... 89 59 87 57 / 10 5 40 20
Raton........................... 93 57 91 55 / 10 5 30 20
Springer........................ 93 57 90 55 / 10 5 40 20
Las Vegas....................... 88 57 84 55 / 10 10 40 30
Clayton......................... 95 65 94 63 / 10 10 10 20
Roy............................. 92 61 89 60 / 20 10 30 20
Conchas......................... 99 68 97 67 / 20 20 20 20
Santa Rosa...................... 99 68 97 66 / 20 10 20 20
Tucumcari....................... 100 70 98 69 / 20 20 10 20
Clovis.......................... 96 68 94 67 / 20 20 10 20
Portales........................ 99 70 96 68 / 30 20 10 20
Fort Sumner..................... 98 69 95 67 / 20 20 5 20
Roswell......................... 103 72 99 72 / 10 20 10 20
Picacho......................... 94 65 91 64 / 20 20 30 20
Elk............................. 91 62 88 61 / 40 20 40 20

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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