Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
534 am MDT Mon Jun 17 2019
12z taf cycle
sct light showers and isold tstms to continue to slowly wane through
14z. Low level moisture has pushed wwd into portions of the rgv and
can't rule out isold MVFR cigs from the east slopes of the central Mt
chain to the Texas border before 15z. Winds aloft and steering flow
will trend swly through 21z, becoming wly thereafter. Scattered
showers and tstms to redevelop over the higher terrain by 18z with
isold strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
possible over ern nm aft 20z. Over wrn and central nm, some of the
showers and storms will be dry with gusty variable winds.
Previous discussion...252 am MDT Mon Jun 17 2019...
moisture has increased across the area and will fuel a robust round
of storms this afternoon and evening, with some possibly becoming
severe across eastern New Mexico. A warming and drying trend will
begin Tuesday, with chances for storms diminishing and daytime
temperatures ramping-up to above normal areawide by Thursday. Some of
the hottest temperatures so far this year are forecast Thursday and
will continue into Friday. Winds will increase toward the end of the
week as well, with windy conditions forecast by Friday into Saturday.
A weak Pacific front will push through over the weekend and bring
temperatures down a few degrees.
low layer moisture is advancing westward across the forecast area and
is resulting in higher surface dewpoint temperatures and an continued
precipitable water uptrend. Storms should be wetting most areas today, except for
across far western nm. The Storm Prediction Center day1 convective outlook upgraded
portions the eastern plains to a slight risk for severe storms and
brought the marginal risk further west to near the east slopes of the
Central Mountain chain. This matches well with the instability
advertised by the latest NAM, showing SBCAPE in excess of 3000 j/kg
and Lis of -6 to -9c. Fairly weak 0-6km bulk shear will not be
supportive of supercells and it appears multicell/pulse-type severe
will be the mode(s), with large hail and damaging winds being the
primary threats. Storms will initiate along the east slopes of the
central mountains this afternoon, then advance east during the late
afternoon and early evening hours per the latest hrrr and href output.
The threat should be limited to near the Texas border and locales
such as Clovis and Portales by the evening hours, when S-se low level
inflow will be at a maximum.
A warming/drying trend will begin Tuesday and continue into at least
Friday, with pwats trending way down and more typical mid June-type
weather prevailing. A few storms are still possible late Tuesday
across northeast nm, with isolated non-wetting storms likely
over/near the higher terrain. The approach of an upper level trough
out of the Pacific northwest going from mid to late week will lead to
increasing westerlies and a deepening Lee side surface trough, with
increasing fire weather concerns (see fire weather discussion below
for details). Daytime temperatures will soar above normal areawide by
Thursday, which will likely be the hottest day so far this year.
This will continue into Friday, but with stronger winds. Downslope
winds will play a role in the hot temperatures across eastern New
Mexico both days. The upper level trough will push a weak Pacific
front through later Saturday and temperatures will dip down a few
degrees over the weekend. Downslope winds ahead of the Pacific front
will allow above normal temperatures to prevail across the eastern
plains on Saturday as well.
today through Tuesday night will continue to be active with showers
and thunderstorms, before drier and warmer weather takes hold over
northern and central New Mexico Wednesday through Friday.
Wetter showers and storms will dominate the Central Mountain chain
and across the eastern plains through Tuesday night. A few storms
from the Pecos Valley to the Texas border could be strong to severe
this afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds.
Across the west and into the Rio Grande Valley, a mix of marginally
wet and dry convection with gusty winds will dominate.
The warming and drying trend mid to late this week will feature
moderate to high Haines Wednesday, and widespread high Haines
Thursday through Friday. High temperatures will be near to above
average during this time. Poor overnight humidity recoveries become
more widespread as well, over the west central and rgv Wednesday
night, then encompassing most of the west, the rgv and the east
Central Plains Thursday and Friday nights. At the same time, the
number of hours and areal coverage of single digit humidities
increase, reaching a maximum Friday, when 6 to 12 consecutive hours
are forecast along and south of Interstate 40. While spotty critical
fire weather conditions are anticipated for portions of the east
Central Plains Wednesday, areal coverage of critical conditions
expands Thursday, and moreso Friday.
During the upcoming weekend, forecast models indicate a return to
somewhat cooler temperatures and higher humidities. However, poor
overnight humidity recoveries remain entrenched over portions of the
west and rgv.