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000 
FXUS65 KABQ 192111
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
311 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be limited to the eastern Plains over
the next few days as drier air arrives from the west. A slight
cooling trend will bring temperatures closer to climate normals as 
well. Dry conditions over the weekend will be followed by scattered 
rain showers on Monday as tropical moisture moves north over New 
Mexico. Considerable model differences still exist Monday and beyond,
so we still have lots of uncertainly regarding next week's rain 
chances. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery early this afternoon shows convection occurring 
over central NM with scattered thunderstorms occurring near Clovis 
and the NM/TX border. Convective development will continue to be 
favorable across the eastern Plains this evening as decent surface 
moisture (dewpoints of 50-60F) combine with moderate instability 
(CAPE values around 1300 J/kg). Storm motion will push most activity 
eastward across the state line this evening, with another round of 
rain showers possible closer to midnight tonight.

Looking aloft, an upper trough centered over NV will slowly progress
toward the Northern Rockies toward the weekend. To the east, a
quasi-Rex block over east TX is helping to keep New Mexico in the
middle of these two systems. High-res models suggest scattered rain
showers will continue over eastern NM tonight as upward motion is 
aided by a subtle jet streak aloft. Rain totals will be in the
0.25-0.50" range, so any flooding that occurs will be primarily
localized.

Friday and Saturday will be dry across the western half of New 
Mexico as dry air behind a weak Pacific front pushes Gulf moisture 
back over the TX panhandle. Thunderstorm chances will be limited to 
along the NM/TX state line, with a few strong storms possible. 
Temperatures won't cool much, maybe 5 to 10 degrees by Saturday.

The weekend will be dry across the forecast area as a transitory
ridge progresses over the Rockies. Temperatures will only be slightly
above normal (2 to 5 degrees), with generally light winds.

Low forecast confidence exists for early next week as we're still
waiting for the global models to agree on a solution regarding an 
upper low diving southward from the Pacific NW. This passing low with
ingest tropical moisture from the south and allow for showers and
thunderstorms across much of the state. The GFS has changed in 
recent runs, producing an open wave that quickly progresses across 
the area. If this solution were true, Monday would be our only window
for area wide rain chances and rain total would be fairly low. The 
ECMWF is very different, producing a closed low and stalling it over
the U.S. Southwest. This solution would produce far more rainfall 
and lasting through Wednesday. For now, I'm leaning toward the GFS 
solution. Both models have dry air arriving late next week, with near
zero rain chances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain chances will be limited to our eastern zones tonight and 
Friday, with dry west winds behind a Pacific cold front keeping the
rest of the area dry over the weekend. Temperatures will dip
slightly, basically returning to climate normals. Min RH will dip to
the lower teens across northwest NM by Sunday, though light winds 
will keep fire danger low. Monday will be the next area wide chance
for wetting rains as tropical moisture is ingested into a fast moving
upper wave diving down in to the Central Rockies. Rain chances won't
last long, however, with a quick return to dry air behind the system
next Tuesday and beyond. Very Good to Excellent ventilation expected
the next few afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE 
New Mexico currently sits between two upper level systems. The upper
low currently centered over northwest Nevada combined with the Rex 
block over east Texas will produce south-southwesterly flow this 
afternoon with a few areas gusting to 20 knots. Outflow-driven winds 
will veer winds towards the 160-200 directions by 20Z this afternoon.
VCTS developing first across west-central New Mexico by 18Z then 
across the eastern Plains by 20Z. Highest potential for TSRA and 
gusty outflow winds will be at KTCC and KROW tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  80  48  77 /  20   5   0   0 
Dulce...........................  44  74  37  72 /  40  30  10   0 
Cuba............................  54  76  49  75 /  40  30  10   5 
Gallup..........................  48  78  43  76 /  10   0   0   0 
El Morro........................  46  76  43  74 /  30   0   0   0 
Grants..........................  48  79  44  77 /  30   5   0   0 
Quemado.........................  49  77  46  77 /  20   0   0   5 
Datil...........................  51  76  49  76 /  20   5   5   5 
Glenwood........................  59  84  57  84 /  10   0   0   5 
Chama...........................  43  68  37  67 /  50  30  10   0 
Los Alamos......................  55  74  52  73 /  40  30  10   0 
Pecos...........................  54  78  53  77 /  50  20  20   5 
Cerro/Questa....................  51  71  47  71 /  30  20  20   0 
Red River.......................  44  62  41  62 /  30  20  20   0 
Angel Fire......................  38  67  34  67 /  50  20  10   0 
Taos............................  49  73  44  73 /  30  20  20   0 
Mora............................  46  74  42  74 /  50  20  20   0 
Espanola........................  56  81  52  80 /  30  20  10   0 
Santa Fe........................  56  75  53  75 /  40  20  20   5 
Santa Fe Airport................  54  78  50  77 /  30  20  10   0 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  84  57  83 /  30  20  10   0 
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  84  55  83 /  30  20   5   0 
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  86  57  85 /  30  20   5   0 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  84  57  83 /  30  20   5   0 
Los Lunas.......................  57  86  54  85 /  30  20   5   0 
Rio Rancho......................  58  84  56  84 /  30  20   5   5 
Socorro.........................  60  89  59  88 /  20  10   5  10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  74  56  74 /  30  20  10   5 
Tijeras.........................  56  79  54  78 /  30  20  10   5 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  83  48  82 /  30  20  10   5 
Clines Corners..................  53  78  52  77 /  30  20  20   5 
Gran Quivira....................  53  80  52  80 /  30  20  10  10 
Carrizozo.......................  59  84  59  83 /  40  20  10  10 
Ruidoso.........................  55  76  54  75 /  50  20  20  30 
Capulin.........................  54  78  51  77 /  30  20  10   5 
Raton...........................  52  82  48  82 /  30  20  10   5 
Springer........................  51  82  48  83 /  30  20  10   5 
Las Vegas.......................  51  78  49  78 /  40  20  20   5 
Clayton.........................  59  83  59  85 /  40  30  20  10 
Roy.............................  56  81  54  82 /  30  20  20   5 
Conchas.........................  61  89  60  90 /  30  30  20   5 
Santa Rosa......................  61  88  61  88 /  30  30  20  10 
Tucumcari.......................  63  88  64  89 /  50  30  20  10 
Clovis..........................  61  85  62  85 /  50  30  30  40 
Portales........................  62  87  64  88 /  50  30  30  40 
Fort Sumner.....................  61  87  62  88 /  50  30  30  20 
Roswell.........................  66  92  67  90 /  50  30  30  30 
Picacho.........................  59  86  59  85 /  50  30  20  30 
Elk.............................  56  84  57  83 /  50  30  20  30 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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