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fxus63 kabr 170151 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
851 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

issued at 849 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Very quiet evening weatherwise. Showers will slowly make there
way into the western forecast area late tonight and spread east.
Satellite and radar showing showers in eastern Montana that will push
southeast overnight. Made a few adjustment to timing of the pops,
otherwise forecast in good shape.


Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 300 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

The main concern in the short term will be precipitation chances
tonight through Monday. Sfc low is currently spinning across
northeast ND with a trailing cold front south and west into our
northern forecast area. Diurnal cumulus has developed across portions of
the area with more pronounced convection taking place farther south
and west across the Black Hills and beginning to spread east closer
to our southwest zones. As the evening progresses, the frontal
boundary will continue to sag southward and with a little upper lvl
energy moving through northwesterly flow, increasing chances for
showers and storms will be possible across our southern zones. Don't
anticipate any storms will reach severe criteria.

Overnight into Monday morning, additional precip activity is
anticipated to develop to our northwest in response to an upper lvl
low sliding out of southern Canada into northern ND/northern Minnesota. As
the upper trough slides southeast across the Dakotas during the day
and weak low pressure and associated frontal boundary lingering in
place across SD, chances for showers and storms will remain through
the day but gradually progress from north to south during the
afternoon into Monday evening. Again, any storms around during the
day aren't expected to severe. Some low stratus could develop early
tomorrow morning and squeak southward into our northern forecast
zones. Do expect a fair amount of cloud cover to hang around on
Monday, which will hold temps below normal for mid June.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 300 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

A somewhat active pattern starts to set up for the long term. The
recent positive pna pattern across the Continental U.S. Looks as if it will
change over to negative during the middle and late part of this week
as energy digs into the western Continental U.S.. a couple rounds of pcpn are
expected during the period. Wednesday and Thursday both show decent
S/W energy moving across the region, but with MLCAPES generally less
than 1000 j/kg for the period, it might be tough to generate much
severe weather. Better chances for severe storms are expected come
Saturday as better shear combines with increasing
moisture/instability. Temperatures, overall, will favor near to
slightly below seasonal norms.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 608 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

A mostly quiet overnight is expected. A few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm is possible after midnight however. The activity is
not expected to be strong. Expect a few showers around kpir this
evening as well.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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