Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kabr 212015 
afdabr

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
315 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Upper level ridging will build over the central part of the country
during the short term period. At the same time, surface high
pressure will slowly sink southward over the region tonight, before
gradually getting pushed eastward on Thursday. A bit of a tight
pressure gradient sets up over the western half of the state on
Thursday, so expect stronger winds along and west of the Missouri
River Thursday afternoon. An elongated low pressure system will
approach far western South Dakota Thursday night. The majority of
the model solutions keep precipitation west of the cwa, but a few do
show the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms reaching the
counties west of the Missouri River late Thursday night, so will
keep small pops in to account for that. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected elsewhere throughout the short term period.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s, with highs
on Thursday in the mid to upper 70s. Lows on Thursday night will be
in the mid 50s to lower 60s.



Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The extended portion of the forecast will continue to feature an
unsettled pattern as a broad upper trough sets up across the
southern provinces of Canada and the northern tier of the United
States. Several embedded waves of upper level energy are progged by
most guidance to move through this northwesterly flow across our
region. This will keep periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast from Friday through early next week.
Conditions could turn slightly more quiet then as a cold front
slides east and shortwave trough swings through. Although, it
appears our region will remain under the influence of the broad
upper trough and northwesterly flow aloft, so can't totally rule out
some precip chances late in the period. Temperature trends through
early next week should exhibit daytime readings near to slightly
below normal. By the end of the period, a more pronounced cool down
will be possible.



&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through midday
Thursday.

&&



Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations