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fxus63 kabr 111734 aac 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1134 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

issued at 1128 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

See updated aviation discussion below.

Update issued at 1012 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Cloud cover diminishing or lifting across the area this morning,
therefore have removed the mention of scattered flurries. No
changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.


Short term...(today through Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 325 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

The short range forecast looks to be fairly tranquil, with a warming
trend. Today will be cold as an Arctic airmass continues to sink
south into the region. Patchy stratus will also advect across the
region and could produce occasional flurries, but probably not Worth
the mention in the forecast. Light winds early tonight will allow
for a quick drop-off in temps, but then warm air advection kicks in out west
overnight as low level jet returns to the plains. So, rising temperatures are
possible after midnight. For Tuesday highs are a bit tricky,
especially over the Missouri River valley where some areas saw a
couple or more inches of snow. Pretty decent warm air advection kicks in, but how
much of that modifying airmass reaches the sfc? Soundings indicate
fairly shallow mixing layer Tuesday afternoon. So, with that in mind
and with leftover snow cover, have decided to go just a bit under
nbm for highs. The wind should also kick in on Tuesday as sfc
gradient tightens up quite a bit ahead of the next system for
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Long term...(tuesday evening through sunday)
issued at 325 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Models still showing shortwave energy moving across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Precip type looks to be an issue
potentially, but soundings would suggest more of a rain/snow p-type
event and not much in the way of freezing rain. By the time the
lower atmosphere saturates, whatever above-freezing layer there is
quickly drops below freezing. Then, p-type is determined by surface
temperatures. Cannot completely rule out freezing rain though, but
with low confidence, forecast depicts just rain/snow for right now.
This rain/snow line looks to set up over the southwest County Warning Area. Precip
amounts will be light as this looks to be a quick mover with no deep
moisture source. Forecast is then dry until the latter parts of the
weekend when a weak system has the potential to impact the region.

Still looking at temperatures to warm up towards the end of the week
and right through the weekend. Highs are forecast to bounce back
into the 30s and 40s, which will start to eat away at the minimal
snow pack we have across the region.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1128 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Scattered to broken cloud cover will be the rule over the area
this afternoon. Most of the clouds will be at VFR levels, with the
exception of the kpir area where lower clouds and light snowfall
will linger through at least mid afternoon. Skies will clear
tonight under the influence of surface high pressure and will
remain clear into the day Tuesday.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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