Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 
FXUS63 KABR 052124
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
324 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 321 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Today's post-frontal shallow cloud deck has been a little more 
broken than anticipated thus far. If clouds remain as such across
northeastern SD and west central MN tonight, as opposed to 
overcast, confidence will further increase for single-digit low 
temperatures there. Winds will lessen this evening and tonight as 
high pressure builds, and when combined with some moisture from 
snow melt today, we can't rule out a bit of shallow fog into
Friday morning across parts of central SD.

As for Friday, scattered cloud cover will continue throughout the 
day as a shallow layer of moisture hangs around. Dry weather will 
continue as the high pressure drifts southeast and away from the 
forecast area. As it does so, winds will shift to the south and 
increase through the afternoon. While there weren't any visibility 
issues, we had areas of snow blow across roadways on Thursday with 
wind gusts around 30 mph. This may play out again especially across 
downslope-prone areas Friday afternoon and evening. Slight upper-
level ridging begins to build in on Friday as well, setting the 
stage for more mild/seasonable lows Friday night and a 
slightly warmer start to the weekend.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

The period begins with an area of low pressure passing northeast of 
the region on Saturday with only a shift in wind direction in this 
CWA. Temps will remain above average with highs in the 30s. Cold, 
Canadian air will begin filtering into the region behind surface low 
Saturday night with highs in the 20s on Sunday. Low clouds may 
spread into the region ahead of a clipper system with freezing 
drizzle possible Sunday afternoon. Buffer soundings suggest low 
level saturation setting up the potential for drizzle. Since this is 
several days out, will not mention fzdz in the forecast.

A clipper system passing through the region late Sunday afternoon 
through Monday morning will have the potential to produce a band of 
moderate snowfall. Most areas should see 1 to 3 inches, however 
would not be surprised to see a narrow band of higher amounts. Three 
to six inches is not out of the question with the band of pcpn. 
Where the band develops is unknown at this time. 

Significantly colder air will take hold of the region for the rest 
of the long term portion of the forecast. Highs will only warm into 
the single digits above zero, with lows falling to the teens below 
zero.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

VFR ceilings at ABR, PIR and ATY will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR 
through the afternoon, as MBG has already done this morning, with
the passage of a cold front. These sub-VFR ceilings will then 
persist through the period. North to northwest winds will be on 
the increase this afternoon behind the front as well, with gusts 
between 20-30 mph. Tonight, once winds lessen, a few hours of fog 
cannot be ruled out across portions of central SD, possibly 
impacting PIR and/or MBG.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$
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