Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 
FXUS63 KABR 182324 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

An area of low pressure is situated over south central SD this 
afternoon. The airmass associated with the surface low is unstable 
with 3-4K J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep layer shear of 40 knots indicates 
the environment is conducive for convection through this evening. 
With little to no upper level support, or very weak forcing, 
storms will probably have a difficult time developing. Increasing 
700 mb temps will also limit the convective potential. The past 
few runs of the HRRR keeps most of this CWA dry through tonight. 
There is a small indication for a storm or two to develop over 
north central SD yet this afternoon. This storm would track 
southeast into a more unstable environment with hail and winds 
possible.

On Friday, a weak upper level shortwave will cross across the 
region, with most of the thunderstorm active in North Dakota. Can 
not rule out a few storms along the ND/SD during the morning hours 
on Friday. If the NAM is correct, accas showers will be possible 
east of I29 Friday morning. Left this area dry for now. A stronger 
upper level shortwave will push through the region Friday night. At 
this time, most of the precipitation should occur post frontal with 
limited threat for severe storms.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Northwest flow aloft this weekend will help keep temperatures on the 
cool side for mid/late July, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 
The muggy air will be shunned further south along with the hotter 
air as well; relatively dry mid to upper 50 dewpoints are expected. 
A dominant ridge of high pressure builds across the High Plains to 
start the work-week, and it remains in control through much of the 
remainder of the long term. Apart from some lingering shower/storm 
activity Saturday morning from an exiting frontal boundary, as a 
result, our area will be largely dry through the period. The main 
upper-level energy should slide well north of the area, into Canada. 
Temperatures will gradually recover during the work-week as well, 
from near normal through the first half to above average by the 
second.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Friday. 

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$
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