Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS63 KABR 052124 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 324 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 321 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 Today's post-frontal shallow cloud deck has been a little more broken than anticipated thus far. If clouds remain as such across northeastern SD and west central MN tonight, as opposed to overcast, confidence will further increase for single-digit low temperatures there. Winds will lessen this evening and tonight as high pressure builds, and when combined with some moisture from snow melt today, we can't rule out a bit of shallow fog into Friday morning across parts of central SD. As for Friday, scattered cloud cover will continue throughout the day as a shallow layer of moisture hangs around. Dry weather will continue as the high pressure drifts southeast and away from the forecast area. As it does so, winds will shift to the south and increase through the afternoon. While there weren't any visibility issues, we had areas of snow blow across roadways on Thursday with wind gusts around 30 mph. This may play out again especially across downslope-prone areas Friday afternoon and evening. Slight upper- level ridging begins to build in on Friday as well, setting the stage for more mild/seasonable lows Friday night and a slightly warmer start to the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 321 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 The period begins with an area of low pressure passing northeast of the region on Saturday with only a shift in wind direction in this CWA. Temps will remain above average with highs in the 30s. Cold, Canadian air will begin filtering into the region behind surface low Saturday night with highs in the 20s on Sunday. Low clouds may spread into the region ahead of a clipper system with freezing drizzle possible Sunday afternoon. Buffer soundings suggest low level saturation setting up the potential for drizzle. Since this is several days out, will not mention fzdz in the forecast. A clipper system passing through the region late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning will have the potential to produce a band of moderate snowfall. Most areas should see 1 to 3 inches, however would not be surprised to see a narrow band of higher amounts. Three to six inches is not out of the question with the band of pcpn. Where the band develops is unknown at this time. Significantly colder air will take hold of the region for the rest of the long term portion of the forecast. Highs will only warm into the single digits above zero, with lows falling to the teens below zero. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 VFR ceilings at ABR, PIR and ATY will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR through the afternoon, as MBG has already done this morning, with the passage of a cold front. These sub-VFR ceilings will then persist through the period. North to northwest winds will be on the increase this afternoon behind the front as well, with gusts between 20-30 mph. Tonight, once winds lessen, a few hours of fog cannot be ruled out across portions of central SD, possibly impacting PIR and/or MBG. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$