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000 
FXAK69 PAFG 232241
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
241 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Winds will be our main concern today. A strong low in Bristol bay
will bring strong northerly winds to the the eastern Bering Sea
and the Southern Chukchi Sea. This low increase east to
northeasterly winds across the Interior today, with the strongest
winds expected in the Tanana Valley near Delta Junction. Strong
southerly winds are expected to develop tonight in the Alaska
Range.

The models initialize well are in good agreement in the short
term. We primarily relied on the NAM for our forecast package
today.

Central and Eastern Interior: Winds have come up across the
Interior as the low moved into the Bristol Bay Region overnight.
Winds gusts associated with the Tanana Valley Jet were a little 
bit higher than expected this this morning. Thus, we upped the 
winds for the rest of the day the Delta Junction area and we 
opted to issue a Wind Advisory for zone 223. The northeasterly 
winds over the summits in the northern Interior were also a little
bit higher than forecast. Therefore, we issued Wind Advisories 
through this evening for summits in the northern Interior. Winds 
look to come up in the Alaska Range tonight as the Tanana Valley 
Jet diminishes and the pressure gradient reorients itself. The 
ongoing Wind Advisories for zones 225 and 226 look to be in good 
shape. Gusty southerly winds in the Alaska Range will likely 
continue through Thursday. A front associated with the low in 
Bristol Bay will move north across the Interior through early 
Thursday. For areas south of Fairbanks, we expect little to no 
precipitation with this system due to downslope effects. Areas to
the north of Fairbanks will see snow with 1 to 3 inches of 
accumulation. Fairbanks will be right on the northern limit of 
area area where downslope effects will limit precipitation. The 
morning sounding shows a warm layer aloft over Fairbanks. The air 
aloft is also very dry. Initially, any precipitation falling 
through the column will likely evaporate before it makes it to the
ground. This will serve to cool the temperatures aloft. There is 
at least some potential for precipitation to make it to the ground
as rain in the Fairbanks area through this evening. This is a low
likelihood event, the potential is there. A shortwave moving 
across the Interior from west to east will bring snowfall Thursday
night into early Friday. This system looks to bring between 0.5 
and 2.5 inches of snowfall as it moves through. A weather system 
looks to bring a mixed bag of precipitation to the Interior Sunday
into Monday, but at the moment there is a lot of uncertainty in 
the details of this system.

West Coast and Western Interior: A strong low over Bristol Bay 
will bring strong northerly winds to the west coast through this 
evening. Gusts up to 55 mph are expected for the Bering Strait 
Coast and St. Lawrence Island, while elsewhere along the coast 
gusts up to 40 mph are expected. Winds will gradually diminish 
tonight as the low starts to track to the east. Elevated surf is 
possible for the north side of St. Lawrence Island as well as on 
Diomede with this system through tonight. A front associated with
the low in Bristol Bay will bing snow to the western Interior as 
it moves to the north tonight. Up to 2 inches is possible, with 
highest accumulation expected east of Galena. This front will also
bring a mixed bag of rain and snow to coastal areas south of the 
Bering Strait this evening. A shortwave digging to the southeast 
from the Arctic will bring chances for snow to the western 
Interior Thursday night. Snow amounts will range from 1 to 3 
inches, with the heaviest amounts east of Galena. The models are 
all showing another strong low moving into the Southern Bering 
late Friday. A front associated with this low looks to bring an 
active weather weekend for the west coast and western Interior. 
This front will bring strong winds to the west coast. This front 
also has the potential to bring heavy precipitation to much of the
west coast and western Interior. The details of this system are 
still uncertain as there is model spread in the placement of key 
synoptic scale features. It does look like there is a lot of warm 
air moving in with this system, so areas to the south of the 
Bering Strait will likely see a messy mixture of rain, snow and 
freezing rain. 

North Slope and Brooks Range: Areas of fog are also expected at 
times along the coast through Thursday. A shortwave trough will
move east across the Arctic Friday and Saturday. As the trough 
moves through it will bring snow showers along the coast late
Friday into Saturday, especially to areas to the west of
Utqiagvik. Up to 4 inches of snow is possible on Saturday along
the coast west of Utqiagvik. A surface low associated with this 
trough will will move east along the Arctic Coast late Friday and 
Saturday and will produce a period of northwest winds over a long 
fetch across the Chukchi Sea that will impact the Chukchi Sea 
Coast. We will need to monitor closely potential for elevated surf
along the Western North Slope Friday into Saturday. A strong area
of high pressure building over the Beaufort Sea combined with a
strong low moving into the Bering Sea will bring strong easterly
winds to the Arctic Coast late Sunday into Monday. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated surf is possible
for the north side of St. Lawrence Island as well as Diomede 
through tonight. A strong low will move into the southern Bering 
Sea on Saturday. This may bring coastal impacts for the weekend; 
however, at the moment there is still a lot of uncertainty in the 
exact details. A low pressure system will pass to the north of 
Utqiagvik on late Friday and Saturday and will produce northwest 
wind over a long fetch over the Chukchi Sea that will impact the 
Western North Slope Coast late Friday and Saturday, potentially
bringing elevated surf.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

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