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fxak67 pajk 181334 

Southeast Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska
534 am akdt sun Aug 18 2019

Short term...with the low pressure system that brought impactful
winds and occasional heavy rainfall yesterday now over the
southern Panhandle and weakening, expect winds to slowly diminish
through the day. Skies will continue to clear behind this system,
and the drying trend will persist through the day. However, a fair
amount of cold air advection did take place with the system, so
highs are expected to remain in the upper 50s and low 60s as a
whole today. A chilly night is expected as low temperatures dip
into the 40s across most of the Panhandle underneath the clear

On Monday, another low pressure system will track northeast over
the Pacific toward the Dixon Entrance. This will produce the
potential for gale force winds over the southeast Gulf and heavy rain
over the southern Panhandle by the late evening hours. Dependent
on the track of the system a brief period of gales could develop
over the southern or central Inner Channels. Unfortunately,
forecast confidence with this system is well below average with
poor run to run consistency and large discrepancies in the track
and arrival time of the low.

Long term.../Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 PM Saturday/
there is increasing uncertainty with potential storm for the Tue-
Wed period, with models continuing to bounce around with its
track. They did suggest the main low center would be about 12 hrs
slower, so ended up delaying the strongest part of the system by
that amount of time. Further out, uncertainties continue with
following systems, although it does appear that a wetter pattern
will develop for late week into the weekend. Overall, other than
the delay of the system for Tue-Wed, forecast changes were

While it looks like the main low center will be delayed, it does
appear that a weaker low will move NE into the southeast Gulf Tue, and
this will spread precip in about the same time that was previously
expected. Could end up with a more prolonged and heavier rain
event as a result, especially across the S.


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Gale Warning for pkz043-051.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz012-013-031>034-041-042.


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