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fxus61 kaly 200512 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
112 am EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Synopsis...
temperatures will begin moderating to above normal levels Friday
into the weekend with dry weather continuing as high pressure
drifts into the southeastern United States, and a mild
southwesterly flow develops on Sunday. The next chance for rain
arrives Sunday night into Monday as a cold front approaches the
region.

&&

Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
area of high clouds slowly building east and will slow the
temperature drop through daybreak. Temperatures are already near
forecasted lows, so even a slower cooling temperatures will get
them to forecasted levels. Winds will be calm and there will be
some fog around rivers, swamps, ponds and lakes. Lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s with some mid 30s in isolated cooler spots.

&&

Short term /6 am this morning through Sunday/...
upper ridging will build into the region from the west Friday
through Saturday, as the surface high slides further southwest.
This will allow for some clouds to be reintroduced but still
remain mostly sunny both days. Temperatures will also warm to
above normal levels with highs on Friday in the low to mid 70s
and mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Some spots in the Mid-Hudson
valley could surpass the 80 degree mark.

Sunday will be the warmest day of the week as south to southwest
flow strengthens ahead of a cold frontal boundary. Clouds will
increase throughout the day as temperatures warm into the low to
mid 80s.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the period starts out Sunday night our area still in a warm sector
ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes region.
Models have come into better agreement with regards to the timing
and placement of the associated upper trough farther upstream over
the upper Great Lakes. There has been a slowing trend in the
expected arrival of showers ahead of the front, so will lower pops
to slight chance north and west of Albany. Most of the area will
remain dry until Monday.

It appears we will finally get some much needed rainfall on Monday,
as a pre-frontal trough and cold front move eastward across the
region. A progressive, but fairly deep upper level trough will
provide large scale ascent coincident with the frontal passage. So
have increased pops to likely across most of the region. At this
time, models are forecasting very limited instability, so have only
mentioned slight chance of thunder for areas west of the Hudson
Valley. It will still be mild on Monday (75-80 in valleys), but not
as warm as Sunday due to the added cloud cover and showers around.

A few lingering showers will be possible Monday evening as the upper
level trough axis passes through, but a drying trend is expected
overnight. Dry and seasonably cooler weather is expected on Tuesday,
as high pressure builds in behind the departing trough. The high is
forecast to be right over our region Tuesday night, providing clear
skies and cool temperatures.

Models start to diverge Wednesday into Thursday, as the GFS is
already indicating the next trough quickly approaching from the west
with showers developing, while the European model (ecmwf) still has ridging in place
and dry conditions through Thursday. The CMC is in between with
regards to timing. Overall, the guidance seems to be having
difficulty resolving the strength of the upper level ridge over the
southeast Continental U.S.. so will lean towards the CMC at this time, with showers
holding off until Wednesday night/Thursday.

&&

Aviation /05z Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure in place will continue to bring dry conditions,
clear skies and light winds through the next 24 hours. However,
these conditions will result in fog development through daybreak
at kalb/kpsf/kgfl. Fog is expected to be occasionally dense,
with IFR/LIFR and even some vlifr conditions. The fog will
mainly occur between 06z-13z, possibly holding off until after
10z/Fri at kalb. Fog is not expected to develop at kpou,
however will have to watch for any nearby fog to advect in. At
this time we are forecasting VFR conditions to prevail at kpou.

With a dry air mass in place and abundant sunshine on Friday,
fog should dissipate by around 13z, with VFR conditions
returning at all sites and persisting through Friday evening.

There could be some patchy ground fog developing at kgfl and
kpsf between 03z-06z/Sat, which could allow vsbys to
occasionally dip into MVFR/IFR ranges.

Winds will be calm through daybreak, becoming west-northwest
around 5 kt by late Friday morning into the afternoon. Winds
will become light/variable to calm around or shortly after
sunset.

Outlook...

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

Fire weather...
temperatures will begin moderating to above normal levels Friday
into the weekend with dry weather continuing as high pressure
drifts into the southeastern United States, and a mild
southwesterly flow develops on Sunday. The next chance for rain
arrives Sunday night into Monday as a cold front approaches the
region.

Relative humidity values will recover to 90 to 100 percent tonight. Relative humidity values
will be 40 to 50 percent Friday afternoon.

Winds will be variable at less than 15 mph through Friday.

&&

Hydrology...
no Hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro service area
/hsa/ through at least Sunday.

There are some abnormally dry areas in the aly hsa based on the
most recent drought monitor, and there is a high probability of
dry weather through at least Sunday.

The next chance of widespread rainfall will be with a cold
frontal boundary and upper trough moving through the area on
Monday and Monday night.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jlv
near term...NAS

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