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fxus61 kaly 180534 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
134 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

high pressure will remain in control of our weather, providing
plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures through
Thursday. Temperatures will begin moderating to above normal
levels Friday with dry weather continuing as the high drifts
southward towards the southeastern United States.


Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
a frost advisory remains in effect for the northern Herkimer,
northern Warren, and Hamilton counties for early Wednesday
morning with lows in the mid/upper 30s and areas of frost.

As of 1235 am EDT, patchy clouds continue to drift south across
portions of the Mid Hudson valley and Taconics. Otherwise,
skies remain mostly clear. Temps have dropped to around 40
across the southwest Adirondacks, with generally mid 40s to
lower 50s elsewhere.

As an upper level disturbance approaches from the north toward
daybreak, additional patchy clouds may form across western New
England, the Taconics, and possibly the Mid Hudson valley.
Elsewhere, expect mainly clear skies through daybreak.

Temps should fall into the mid/upper 30s across the southwest
Adirondacks, with mainly 40s elsewhere. Temps may rise toward
daybreak across portions of western New England as some clouds,
and light wind develop with the approach of the upper level

Patchy fog will likely form within river valleys once again,
with greatest chances and areal coverage expected across the
southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region, where skies
remain clear longest.


Short term /6 am this morning through Friday/...
throughout the short term, high pressure will gradually shift
south-southwest towards the Tennessee Valley and southeastern US
as tc Humberto slides further northeast into the northern

This will result in continued dry weather and cooler than normal
temps through Thursday. Highs both Wednesday and Thursday will
be in the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be much cooler
than normal Wednesday night as most locations will see values in
the upper 30s to low 40s. The higher terrain may need a frost
advisory as well. Thursday night, low temps should be in the

Temperatures begin moderating towards
above normal warmth on Friday as the high finally becomes
centered south of the region. This will allow for some clouds
to return, though most should still see more sun than clouds.
Afternoon highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s.


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
well above normal temperatures this weekend with continued dry
weather as ridging remains in control. Guidance has the upper ridge
axis to our west over the Great Lakes region at the start of the
period. The ridge is forecast to gradually shift eastward and dampen
over the weekend. While at the surface, the high will be over our
region and is expected to shift eastward off the coast by Sunday
morning. Looking at deep southwest flow across the region Sunday
into Monday with a trough approaching from the west. This
approaching trough and associated cold front will bring the first
chances for rain in nearly a week late Sunday night into Monday

Highs Saturday and Sunday are expected to run 10 to 15 degrees above
normal with lower 80s below 1000 feet and 70s above that. Monday
will not be quite as warm due to the increase cloud cover and
chances for showers. A cooler and more seasonable airmass returns
with the passage of the front for Tuesday.


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high pressure in control of the weather but a little reinforcing
shot of cooler air from the north and northeast is keeping
surface winds from going completely calm in some areas. The
light winds and gradual drying of the low level atmosphere are
slowing the fog formation in our region.

Winds should go calm before daybreak and including some IFR fog
between 08z-12z at kpsf but not quite to LIFR because of the
late formation and the slow gradual drying of the low level
atmosphere. Kgfl will have intervals of fog through daybreak,
possibly to LIFR between 10z-12z. Any fog will burn off by 12z
and visibilities through the rest of the day will be VFR. There
will also be few clouds if any through the day today.

Winds will be light north at less than 6 kt trending to calm
through daybreak. Winds become north to northeast at less than
10 kt this morning and continuing through afternoon. Winds
trend toward calm through this evening.


Wednesday night-saturday: patchy fog possible late each night/early
morning each day, otherwise no significant weather.


Fire weather...
high pressure will remain in control of our weather,
providing plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures
through Thursday. Temperatures will begin moderating to above normal
levels Friday with dry weather continuing as the high drifts
southward towards the southeastern United States.

Relative humidity will recover to 90-100 percent tonight with widespread dew
formation and patchy fog expected (and areas of frost across the
southwest adirondacks). Relative humidity values drop back to 35-55 percent
Wednesday afternoon, lowest in valley areas.

Winds will become light/variable tonight. On Wednesday, north
to northeast winds increase to 5-10 mph.


no Hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro service area
/hsa/ for the next seven days.

There are some abnormally dry areas in the aly hsa based on the
most recent drought monitor, and there is a high probability of
dry weather over the next several days.

The next chance of widespread rainfall may be with a cold
frontal boundary approaching on Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for nyz032-033-042.


near term...iaa/kl/jlv

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