Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 172339
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
739 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019
the unsettled weather will continue the next few days with
increasing levels of heat and humidity each day. There will be
a threat of afternoon and evening showers until Thursday. By
the end of next week, the heat and humidity will depart our area
as a cold front moves across eastern New York and western New
Near term /through Sunday/...
as of 730 PM EDT...latest radar showing an organized line of
showers and thunderstorms across the greater capital district
into southern Vermont. Areas south of Albany into southern New
England could see some periods of heavy rain this evening before
diminishing after 9-10 PM. The radar is showing some training
across the Catskills and parts of the Mid Hudson valley. There
may be some backbuilding in this region.
Temperatures have cooled off to to the 60s north and west of
the capital district. Will keep mention of heavy showers until
midnight and then taper off intensity. Hires model guidance
shows the line moving through much of the region by 9pm - 10pm.
Short term /Sunday night through Monday/...
the main threat of showers and thunderstorms should diminish
after 9pm tonight. Some additional showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm may linger until the passage of the short
wave trough. It will be humid with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Will include fog late tonight with low level
moisture and calm wind.
Sunday...the humidity will be on the increase and will have a
repeat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with an area of
low pressure along a boundary. With instability, lift and
moisture there will be the threat of severe thunderstorms. Main
threats will be gusty winds and heavy downpours. Some flash
flooding will be possible. Temperatures on Sunday will be a few
degrees warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Sunday night...any showers and thunderstorms that develop will
diminish with the loss of heating and as the boundary continues
to shift northward. The overnight low will be mild around 70
Monday...the heat is on as high temperatures will reach 90
degrees at most locations across the Mid Hudson valley, the
greater capital region and the Lake George Saratoga region. It
will be very humid and oppressive with dewpoints in the lower
70s. With high dewpoints and temps well north of 90, will have
to monitor the heat index for Monday. Will include a low chance
of showers and thunderstorms Monday with the instability and
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
the heat and humidity will continue Monday night through
Wednesday. We will not see relief from the hot and humid airmass
is ushered out by a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.
Tuesday through Wednesday will continue to be warm and humid.
There will be multiple waves moving through the region. With
lift, instability and moisture, there will be a threat of
showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. However, with high dewpoints overnight and some
impulses overnight, will keep showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast the entire day Tuesday and Wednesday.
By Thursday the main cold front should move through the region.
This will bring relief as cooler and drier air moves into the
region. Ahead of the front Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, there will be the risk of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday will be much cooler and less humid with high pressure
building into the region. Thursday nights lows will be more
seasonable with lows in the 50s. Fridays highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s.
Aviation /23z Saturday through Thursday/...
the line of showers and thunderstorms moved through kgfl. From
kalb south, there may be periods of rain and possibly a
thunderstorm at kpou and kpsf. By 3z-4z any heavy rain and
thunder should diminish. Fog/low stratus is expected to develop
after 3-4z with low level moisture in place.
Winds will diminish to calm to around 2-3 knots overnight. Winds
will be out of the southwest around 5knots on Sunday, but
locally higher in thunderstorms.
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...fg...tsra.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
the unsettled weather pattern will continue the next few days
with increasing humidity levels and chances of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. The heat and humidity will
become oppressive by Monday.
Max relative humidity values will be close to 100 percent the
next 48 hours
The winds will be south to southwest around 5 to 10 knots Sunday.
with thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday night until
Wednesday, there is the threat of isolated flash flooding across
the region. There will be the threat for locally heavy
downpours, as humidity levels and dew points are on the
increase. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing flooding
of urban, low lying or poor drainage areas. Some temporary
elevated flows may be possible from thunderstorms on Brooks,
streams, creeks and other small bodies of water.
Drier and cooler weather may return by Thursday when a cold
front sweeps through the region.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.