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000 
FXUS61 KALY 210835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
435 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and oppressive humidity will continue 
through today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible 
during the afternoon and evening hours. A cold front will move 
across the region on tonight into Monday, with a return to 
seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels to begin the 
work week. A widespread rainfall is possible Monday night into 
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dangerous and oppressive heat will continue through the weekend
with Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings in place.

Areas of clouds in western and central NY with a few showers 
well west of our region. Upper energy in Canada is tracking 
east and an associated cold front will sink slowly south late 
this afternoon. West to west northwest low level flow will limit
low level convergence even though there is considerable 
instability.


Including isolated showers and thunderstorms in the southern
Adirondacks this morning. Otherwise, new showers and
thunderstorms will form, again, isolated, this afternoon.
Boundary layer temperatures will cool slightly by late this
afternoon but intervals of sun and breezy west winds outside of
the areas of clouds and showers will help temperatures get into
the 90s in the Hudson Valley and NW CT with cooler elsewhere. 
High humidity will result in heat indices above 95 in areas with
the advisories and warnings through this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
There are still disagreements in guidance as to the timing of
onset of rain Monday and the exit of the rain Tuesday.
Temperatures will cool through Sunday night and increasing
clouds and the onset of the rain will limit warming Monday.
Highs Monday in the 70s. Rain will be locally heavy from the
eastern Catskills to areas just south of the Capital Region
through the mid Hudson Valley, southern Berkshires and NW CT 
where isolated thunderstorms could produce urban and small 
stream flooding.

The timing of the exit of the rain and beginning of clearing
will determine how much we can warm Tuesday. Highs Tuesday in
the 70s but around 70 northern areas. If clearing takes place
earlier in the day Tuesday, then some areas will get around 80.
Lows Tuesday night in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The period starts out Wednesday with slightly below normal 
temperatures expected due to a broad upper level trough in place 
across the region. Upper level trough axis forecast to move through 
during the day, but with limited moisture/instability will only 
mention isolated showers for areas north and west of Albany at this 
time. Humidity levels will be comfortable with dewpoints in the 50s. 
Any isolated showers should dissipate during the evening as the 
trough axis passes east of the region.

On Thursday, a weak short wave trough will move across the area. 
With warmer temperatures and potentially greater instability, 
coverage of showers could be scattered north of Albany. Will mention 
slight chance thunder due to some forecast instability present. 
Temperatures look to warm back to normal levels. Diurnal influences 
should result in decreasing shower activity after dark.

Friday through Saturday we are expecting mainly dry conditions with 
warming temperatures, as a ridge of high pressure both at the 
surface and aloft takes residence along the east coast. Dewpoints 
should start to increase with values rising back into the 60s during 
this time. Low-level flow forecast to maintain a westerly component, 
so at this time oppressive dewpoints in the 70s are not expected. 
Tempertures should warm to above normal levels, with mid to upper 
80s for highs in most valley locations.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very warm and humid air mass will remain in place across the
region through today. A cold front will move through tonight. 

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 06Z Monday at the KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF terminals.
There is a low probability of some low stratus clouds
developing, mainly at KPSF. Confidence is low, so will only 
mention SCT clouds at this time. A few showers may approach KGFL
prior to 12Z, but may dissipate before getting there. Will
mention VCSH at this time. A light, but persistent southwest 
breeze through the night should inhibit fog formation. 

Just some scattered cumulus/cirrus clouds expected today, with 
westerly winds increasing. Chance for convection is low today, 
but an isolated TSRA cannot be completely ruled out. Not enough
confidence to mention in TAFs for now.

Winds will initially be southwest around 5 kt or less, becoming
westerly and increasing to 10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts of
20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dangerous heat and oppressive humidity will continue 
through today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible 
during the afternoon and evening hours. A cold front will move 
across the region on tonight into Monday, with a return to 
seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels to begin the 
work week. A widespread rainfall is possible Monday night into 
Tuesday.

No critical fire weather conditions are expected through the 
entire forecast period. Minimum Relative Humidity values will 
generally stay above 50% for the entire forecast period with RH 
values approaching 95% during the overnight hours. Generally 
light south to southwest flow will turn to west and northwest 
today at around 15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph. Winds then
become north to northwest at 15 mph or less on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible 
today with more widespread precipitation possible Monday night 
through Tuesday. Torrential downpours will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop. Areas south of the Capital Region
could get over an inch of rain while areas from the Capital
Region northward will see a quarter to three quarters of an
inch. There is a slight chance for excessive rainfall and 
localized flooding in showers and thunderstorms Monday into 
Tuesday. No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through 
the forecast period at this time.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web 
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high minimum temperatures and high temperatures...

July 21st...
Albany: 76 degrees 2011 and 101 degrees 1930 
Glens Falls: 72 degrees 2011 and 96 degrees 2011 
Poughkeepsie: 73 degrees 2011 and 101 degrees 1977

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063-083-084.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
     NYZ064>066.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS 

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