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000 
FXUS61 KALY 150256
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
956 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Overnight, clouds will gradually thin and it will not be as 
cold as the past couple of nights. Friday will be milder with 
increasing clouds later in the day and the chance of a snow 
shower or sprinkle. However, another cold airmass arrives this 
weekend after the passage of a cold front Friday night. Record 
cold temperatures for mid November may be broken. Sunshine will 
help moderate the cold temperatures during the day on Saturday 
and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 9:56 PM EST...Most of area remains mostly cloudy so
adjusted cloud cover to reflect this. Adjusted temperatures as
they have actually warmed in some areas with cloud cover while 
sites that have seen breaks in clouds have seen temperature 
drop. Radar shows some flurries or light snow showers far 
northeast part of area so added slg- chc POPs. Otherwise,
minimal changes.
 
Previous...
With the passage of a warm front and southwest flow 
aloft tonight will be milder than recent nights. Clouds will 
decrease across the area with the passage of a dissipating 
boundary evening as it has little support. Southerly flow will 
persist overnight but shift more to the southwest with the 
passage of the weakening boundary. Temperatures still be running
below normal with lows in the 20s and teens across portions of 
the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
More record breaking cold this weekend.

Milder Friday with temperatures closer to normal for mid-November
ahead of a secondary cold front. Upper level support will be to
our north as northern stream energy rotates about the upper low
over Hudson' Bay Canada. Showers activity associated with the 
approach and passage of the front is expected Friday afternoon 
and evening and limited to areas mainly north in I-90 in the 
form of snow showers. QPF will be light. Colder air will be 
ushered back in with the passage of the cold front as we head 
into the weekend. 

Highs Friday mainly in the 30s with lower 40s in the mid Hudson 
Valley up into the Capital District and across northwestern 
Connecticut with any 20s limited to above 2000 feet. Temperatures 
are expected to drop down into the teens Friday night with single 
digits across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain of 
southern Vermont. Some readings around zero degrees for the 
Stillwater Reservoir area.

Cold Canadian high pressure will build in and shift eastward across 
the region. The center of the high will move from the Great Lakes 
region Late Friday night across the North Country to northern New 
England Saturday night. Cold and dry with record low max/highs 
possibly being reach or broken on Saturday and lows Sunday morning.

Record low max/high November 16th:
Albany NY: 28 degrees 1933
Glens Falls NY: 25 degrees 1933
Poughkeepsie NY:31 degrees 1933 

Record lows November 17th: 
Albany NY: 7 degrees 1924
Glens Falls NY: 5 degrees 1997 
Poughkeepsie NY: 14 degrees 1980

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Those seeking at least some relief from the recent stretch of much 
below normal temperatures can find some solace in the long term. The 
synoptic pattern favors a general ridge of high pressure position in 
the Central Atlantic and a longwave trough over the Central U.S. This 
should induce a southwest flow regime over the Northeast U.S and 
provide opportunities for temperatures to inch their way closer to 
normal which for mid-November in eastern NY/western New England is 
highs in the low-mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. 
However, global guidance suggests that multiple shortwaves will be 
rounding the base of the aforementioned trough and thus may lead to 
a few chances for precipitation including potential for wintry mix. 
Read on for details.

We start the long term period off on Sunday with a strong dome of 
high pressure centered over northern New England/Canadian Maritime 
with a shortwave escaping off the Southeast U.S coast and riding up 
the western periphery of the Central Atlantic ridge. Current 
guidance suggest the ridge is far enough off shore that the bulk of 
the forcing remains off shore. However, guidance continues to 
suggest that enough warm air advection reaches into the ALY CWA late 
Sunday night into Monday that we could experience some overrunning 
precipitation. With a cold air mass positioned over northern New 
England and warm air advecting up and over it, this is a classic set-
up for our region to experience wintry mix including freezing rain 
and/or sleet. Dew points are low in the 20s at the onset of this 
event and with northeasterly surface flow, surface temperatures 
likely will remain chilly between the cold air advection and wet-
bulb diabatic cooling processes. Therefore, confidence is increasing 
that if strong enough WAA reaches into the ALY CWA and leads to 
overrunning precipitation, it probably will fall as a wintry mix on 
Monday. Given the current guidance keeps the bulk of the warm nose 
well to our east off the New England coast, surface temperatures 
probably will not have much of chance to warm much, especially since 
our early AM Monday temperatures should be quite cool in the 20s. 

The main uncertainty with the Monday event is not so much on the 
thermal profile but more so on the forcing and if eastern NY/western 
New England experiences precipitation. The ECWMF and CMC-NH are the 
wetter solutions and suggest overrunning precipitation reach through 
most of our CWA while the GFS is drier and hints that dry air may 
hang tight and limit the QPF. For now, we placed the higher POPs in 
western New England which should be closer to the low and tapered 
them down heading into the Adirondacks.

The remainder of the week remain uncertain as the longwave trough 
from the Midwest advances eastward with a few shortwaves rounding 
its base and heading towards the Northeast. We do remain in a 
general southwest flow regime through Wednesday night which should 
help allow temperatures to become a bit milder and rise into the 
upper 30s to low 40s. Chances for precipitation will also continue 
given the rather active pattern but guidance varies on timing and 
placement of the shortwaves so too early to give details. For now, 
we confined POPs to slight chance or low end chance POPs through 
most of the week since we do not see a clear signal for widespread 
precipitation through Thursday. Thermal profiles at this point look 
to support either rain or rain/snow mix for most of the period, 
outside of the Adirondacks which should favor more snow.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will likely prevail across all TAF sites through
tonight as we are in warm sector between a warm front to our
east and a cold front well to the northwest in Canada. The cold
front will reach KGFL and KALB by 00Z/Sat, but we are expecting
little in the way of precipitation. Some light snow showers or 
flurries and MVFR cigs are possible KGFL and KALB Friday 
afternoon. 

Southerly winds around 5 to 10 kts will persist through this 
evening before weakening to around 5 kt. Calm winds expected at
KGFL and KPOU tonight. On Friday, expect southwest to west 
winds at 5 to 15 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...FZRA...SLEET.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN...SLEET.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tonight and Friday will be milder with temperatures closer to normal 
for mid-November. However, another cold airmass arrives over the 
weekend with the passage of a cold front accompanied by some snow 
showers Friday afternoon and evening mainly north of Interstate
90.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic problems are not expected over the next several days, 
however shallow non-moving bodies of water will continue see ice 
form due to the cold below normal temperatures. The precipitation 
that occurs will be light into the weekend.  

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest 
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit 
the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our 
website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KENX radar is back in service. It was down much of the week
for the refurbishment of the transmitter.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Speciale

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