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fxus64 kama 192352 
afdama

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
652 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Aviation...
for the 00z tafs...
scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected to impact Ama for the
next few hours. Northern terminals not expected to hear thunder
for the remainder of the evening. MVFR or possibly IFR ceilings
expected to arrive at Ama before sunrise and to persist through
the morning. MVFR ceilings expected to be of a shorter duration
at dht. Not expecting these ceiling to reach Guy. VFR conditions
expected at all terminals after 18z Friday with scattered
thunderstorms north and scattered to numerous thunderstorms around
Ama.

Cockrell

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

Discussion...
a southwest flow aloft will continue to help bring sub-tropical
moisture this way. Several upper level disturbances in this flow
will also bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to much of the
area through Saturday night. An upper level trough will be found
from North Dakota south southwest to near the 4-corners by Saturday
afternoon. The southern side of the upper level trough will move
east of the panhandles by Sunday which will bring some drier air to
the region bringing the shower and thunderstorms to a brief end by
Sunday night.

Some of the storms may become strong to severe from tonight through
Sunday. Plenty of low level moisture will be in place. Shear, both
speed and directional will be present. The upper levels will also
be cooling aloft through the weekend as the upper trough approaches
and moves across the region.

Southerly winds may get up into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher
gusts both Friday and Saturday as a surface Lee-side low slides from
southeast Wyoming into southeast Colorado.

Showers and thunderstorms then make a return to the panhandles
Monday through Tuesday night as another upper level trough or cutoff
low approaches the panhandles.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 63 84 64 86 61 / 60 50 40 30 20
Beaver OK 64 86 66 90 61 / 30 40 20 20 30
Boise City OK 60 85 59 88 53 / 30 20 10 5 10
Borger Texas 66 89 68 91 64 / 60 50 30 30 20
Boys Ranch Texas 63 87 65 90 61 / 60 50 40 20 20
canyon Texas 62 84 63 85 61 / 60 60 40 40 30
Clarendon Texas 65 86 67 85 65 / 40 60 40 40 30
Dalhart Texas 59 87 60 89 54 / 50 30 30 10 20
Guymon OK 62 86 63 90 57 / 50 40 20 10 20
Hereford Texas 63 86 63 87 61 / 60 50 40 30 20
Lipscomb Texas 65 87 68 90 64 / 30 50 20 30 30
Pampa Texas 64 85 66 87 63 / 40 50 30 30 30
Shamrock Texas 64 86 66 85 65 / 30 60 30 40 30
Wellington Texas 65 88 67 87 66 / 30 60 40 40 30

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

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