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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
353 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Today and tonight...

Convection has help push outflow / frontal boundary back through the
area. The front provide cooler temps for today, however there is
very little low level drying noted in model progs assoc W/ the
boundary. A mid to upr level trough will remain across the eastern areas
and large scale subsidence on the backside may not arrive until late
in the day from west to east. So the million dollar question is
whether there will be ongoing precip after 12z around the upper low
and if there will be enough recovery to generate storms later today
as a mid-upr level trough over the area provides much cooler mid
level temps which helps maintain some modest level of instability
despite the cooler sfc temps. Hrrr seems to finally have grasp on
current situation and leaning on it's forecast showing showers
continuing to rotate around the circulation seen on radar as it
tracks south-southeast toward the southeast corner of the Texas Panhandle. Am leaning
toward lower pop forecast models for redevelopment this aftn given
the previous period storms, but this still mean maintaining slt chc
to lower end chc pops this aftn and evening. There is a lot of
uncertainty in this and if we break out of the cloud cover and
manage to recover and heat up more than expected, we may have to
update to raise pops later today. Given cooler temps and modest cape
(esp per NAM which may be onto something regarding cooler highs
today), there isn't much severe threat for today in any storms that
develop. Storm Prediction Center is maintaining a marginal category across the far east
in the outlook for now where the GFS has slightly higher cape
forecast.

&&

Long term (monday through sunday)...

Models agree 700 mb Theta-E will increase to 330-334 across nm and the
western Panhandle by Monday morning. This will aid in increasing pws to
1-1.5" by aftn across the area. Models have come into a little
better agreement that a leading S/WV will spark tstms along and
ahead of the dryline in nm and the far western panhandles given moisture
rich air in place. There are some differences in timing, but
majority of the models seem to point to more of an evening and
overnight event, although there will be some chc pops across the far
west for the late aftn. It appears the storms will pretty quickly
form a cold pool and an mesoscale convective system will result, however 0-6 km bulk shear
is shown to be pushing 35 across the west and cape values near 2000
j/kg this may support supercell structures for a while initially
similar to what we saw today (minus the 3" hail). 20-30 kt westerly
corfidi vectors suggest a movement to the east into higher dewpoint
air once a complex develops, but there is a little more cin forecast
than previously which is providing more uncertainty that a complex
will survive across the entire panhandles Monday night as well as
how far east storms may maintain severe potential. Monday is pretty
much where any sign of model agreement ends as moisture, instability
and very small scale disturbances drive weather Tue and Wed.

A broad trough across the western US will place a weak west-southwest-east-northeast oriented
jet across the panhandles and West Texas through Wednesday. Additional
weak vorts within the flow could trigger storms through Tue and a
another stronger S/WV will traverse The Rockies and approach from
the northwest through Wed. 700 mb Theta-E remains favorable Tue and models show
high cape developing by aftn. GFS is pretty agressive pushing a dry
line east quickly (favoring only the far east for storms) while the
NAM holds it back to the west and shows another complex blasting
across the area from source region in NE nm and Colorado as wind shear
remains respectable. The European model (ecmwf) and Gem have their own ideas that
don't really agree with either wrt timing and location. Affects
from any Mon night complex brings into question if model moisture
and instability progs can be trusted. There are subtle differences
in model depth and track of the main shortwave mvg southeast across The
Rockies on Wed. The European model (ecmwf) and the Gem have been deeper and taking
a bit more srn track with this system, and therefore generate
convection one more aftn on Wed (favoring the eastern 2/3rds)
while the GFS is further north and generates less potential for
storms. Given all the uncertainty, it seems like slt chance to chance
pops are the best bet for now Tue and Wed.

It still appears like a brief break in the storminess and more of a
SW low level flow will promote slightly above normal temps late in
the week for a few days before another front comes into play either
Sat or sun cooling things back off and perhaps bringing pops back
into the forecast. Of course, model agreement remains poor in
keeping with that theme to close out the forecast period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 77 59 84 61 88 / 30 20 20 60 20
Beaver OK 79 60 83 61 83 / 40 20 20 60 30
Boise City OK 76 58 80 55 80 / 30 30 40 70 40
Borger Texas 79 62 85 62 88 / 40 20 20 60 30
Boys Ranch Texas 79 60 85 60 89 / 30 20 30 70 20
canyon Texas 79 60 86 61 90 / 30 20 20 50 20
Clarendon Texas 80 62 84 64 88 / 30 20 10 40 20
Dalhart Texas 77 58 81 56 83 / 30 20 40 70 30
Guymon OK 79 60 81 58 82 / 40 20 30 70 40
Hereford Texas 80 59 88 61 92 / 20 20 20 50 20
Lipscomb Texas 78 61 84 63 85 / 40 20 10 60 30
Pampa Texas 77 60 82 61 85 / 40 20 20 50 30
Shamrock Texas 79 62 85 65 88 / 40 30 10 50 30
Wellington Texas 82 64 86 66 90 / 30 30 10 50 30

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

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