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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
200 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Short term...(tonight through wednesday)
issued at 200 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Filing under "broken record", but it is still going to be awfully
cold tomorrow, with the unseasonably cold conditions persisting for
the rest of the work week. Lows are expected to bottom out in the
single digits above and below zero tonight, although some locations
in favorable cold drainage areas could see lows in the teens below
zero. Wind chills don't look to be a big concern at this time with
winds generally light to less than 10 mph - but they will still add
bite to the air. Dress appropriately for the weather later tonight
through Tue morning.

Models remain on track with taking an upper level shortwave trough
from the Pacific northwest Tue night, sliding the trough axis across the local
area Wed night. Not much of a sfc reflection from the upper level
forcing with only a weak low/sfc boundary indicated. Good low level
warming leads the system across the region Wed morning, although
most of this lift will go into saturation. West-east running x-
sections and BUFKIT soundings do show the saturation deepening later
Wed morning. All in all, while not a very dynamic system, ample
moisture and lift from the shortwave should result in areas of snow
for the better part of Wed, gradually exiting east later in the

As for amounts, lack of stronger dynamics or the benefits of low
level warming will/should keep totals in check. BUFKIT soundings
also point to a small dgz layer and it's well a loft. Snow ratios
around climatology look reasonable (12:1). That said, there does
appear to be the potential for at least a narrow band of weak
frontogenetic lift that could help with amounts. Trying to place
this is problematic at this time and won't try to get get too
refined with potential amounts yet. NAM is the aggressor of the
models in its latest run, suggesting 3 to 4 inches for some local
locations. GFS is less and shifted more south. Ec looks like the NAM
although a bit less. Going to stick with 1 to 2" for the moment.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 230 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Looks like we might finally break out of the early grip of winter
cold as we work toward the end of the week. The GFS and ec both
suggest moderating the upper level flow...becoming more zonal to
southwesterly by early next week. Highs would see an upward climb if
this comes to pass, and could reach back into the mid November
normals for the start of next week.

High pressure also slated to become the main weather feature by mid
week, with dry and quiet conditions expected into the weekend. An
upper level shortwave trough is taking aim on the region for Sunday,
which could bring some rain/snow chances.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1046 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Krst/klse will have to contend with in/out cumulus/stratocumulus
today along with scattered flurries from time to time. Cloud bases
will be mainly VFR but will have to watch for a brief MVFR deck
along with a very brief reduction in vsby in flurries/snow showers.
Look for the clouds and flurries to diminish by sunset as high
pressure builds in. Also, plan on the brisk north/northwest winds to
diminish toward sunset. High pressure will produce VFR conditions
tonight into Tuesday.


Arx watches/warnings/advisories...

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