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fxus63 karx 222035 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
335 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

With southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa continue to report
wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, we have kept the Wind Advisory going
for those area until 7 PM. Meanwhile, the clouds and poor low
level lapse rates have greatly limited the wind gusts into
southwest and central Wisconsin. Due to this, the Wind Advisory
has been dropped for these areas.

On Wednesday, a fast moving low pressure area will move through
the region. This system will tighten the 900 to 700 mb
frontogenesis along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor.
The consensus of the models is that we will receive up to a tenth
of an inch of precipitation from this system. However, there were
a few outliers up to a third of an inch. With the soundings
continuing to show a warm boundary layer, kept the precipitation
type mainly rain. With that said, cannot rule out some snow at
precipitation onset or when the rates are high.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

From Thursday into Saturday morning, high pressure will provide
dry weather for the area. High temperatures on Thursday and
Friday will be in the 40s and then warm into the lower and mid-50s
on Saturday.

Still some uncertainty on the track of a low pressure area from
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Both the the Canadian and
European model (ecmwf) as a low pressure area tracking northeast from the mid
Mississippi River valley northeast into the lower Great Lakes.
This track would bring rain to northeast Iowa and southwest and
central Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps this system much
further southeast. As a result, we stay dry.

From Monday night into Tuesday, the Arctic oscillation is starting
to transition to its negative phase. Both the GFS and Canadian
quickly brings much colder air into the region sooner than the
European model (ecmwf). Prior to the cold air arrival, the European model (ecmwf) brings a low
pressure system through the region. It has high temperatures in
the 60s in western Wisconsin and 30s toward I-35. It generates
anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation. At this time, it
looks like it would keep the precipitation mainly rain for our


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Rain has moved out of krst, but there are some lingering showers
for klse. There are no visibility impacts expected during the
forecast period. Winds will gust up to 35 kts from the west this
afternoon, but are expected to decrease this evening. MVFR
ceilings continue, but gradual clearing is expected overnight,
although confidence is somewhat low with timing. Then, VFR
conditions will last through the end of the period. Near the end
of the period, there is a possibility for some light precipitation
with no significant impacts and mid-level clouds to return, but
still remaining in VFR.


Arx watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for mnz079-086>088-

Iowa...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for iaz008>011-018-019-



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