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fxus61 kbgm 250805 
afdbgm

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
405 am EDT sun Aug 25 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure will keep fair weather over New York and
Pennsylvania through Tuesday. Then a cold front could bring a
few thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

Near term /through Monday/...
overall, a very quiet period is in store through Monday with a
dry and seasonably cool airmass in place.

Today and tonight: after early morning valley fog dissipates,
expecting a partly sunny day across the area as high pressure
centered over southeastern Canada will be in control. An upper
level low centered over the southern New England coast will
be the main reason why there will be more clouds mixing in with
the sunshine. Despite the presence of this upper level low, the
dry airmass in place will prevent any shower activity. Highs
will likely be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, which is a bit below
normal for this time of the year. Then expecting a mostly clear
night, with patchy valley fog once again developing. Lows will
once again be chilly, mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Some
areas in the higher elevations of the Catskills will likely get
down to the lower 40s.

Monday: a very similar day to today will be in store with early
morning patchy valley fog. Main differences will likely be less
cloud cover/more sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures
(highs in the lower to mid 70s) as high pressure remains in
control and slight upper level ridging building in.

&&

Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/...
high pressure moves off the coast of New England on Tuesday with
warm/moist SW return flow developing over the region. A warm
front will push northward across the area on Tuesday with a cold
front entering western New York late Tuesday night. Have kept low pops
through the period as subsidence aloft should limit any shower
activity as the warm front passes. Also, the suite of model
guidance is in good agreement that the cold front should be
moving slow enough that the bulk of the rainfall will hold off
until Wednesday.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...

The previously mentioned cold front is still projected to move
through our region on Wednesday. The front enters our western
forecast zones Wednesday morning, so with showers and cloud
cover moving in so early in the day, instability will be
lacking. However, can't rule some embedded thunderstorms,
especially as the front pushing into our eastern zone late
Wednesday afternoon. The cold front exits the region Wednesday
night and showers should come to an end.

Surface high pressure builds in on Thursday with upper trough
also overhead. With the cold temperatures aloft and west-
northwest fetch off the lake bringing in moisture, could see a
slight chance for an isolated shower with diurnal heating
Thursday afternoon.

High pressure will then likely hold through the end of the week
and possibly into the first half of next weekend.

&&

Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
mainly VFR conditions are expected through this taf period. The
one exception will likely be at kelm, where valley fog will develop
between 08z and 13z this morning. This will likely cause IFR
and occasional alt min visibility restrictions between 10z and
12z.

Winds early this morning will be light and variable before
becoming easterly at around 7 kts by this afternoon.

Outlook...
Monday...VFR, except early morning fog likely at kelm.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...restrictions possible
in showers and storms.

Thursday...VFR.

&&

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...bjg/djp

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