Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 121204
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
704 am EST Tue Nov 12 2019
a system will exit the area this morning, ending the steadier
snow. However, Arctic air will overspread the region which may
cause previously wet untreated to roads to become icy. Winds
will be gusty out of the northwest today. Record cold persists
through midweek with lake effect snow showers, especially later
today through tonight southeast of Lake Ontario.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
645 am update...
slick commute this morning as system finishes moving through
the region. Record cold will overtake the area today through
Wednesday, also causing lake effect snow showers southeast of
Lake Ontario. See climate section of this discussion for more
details on the daily records that could fall.
Final shot of wintry mix to snow is pressing southeast through
the area, which will cause a slick commute early this morning.
The front, and its wintry mix to snow transition, has reached
the Poconos to Catskills. Immediately behind the front the
atmospheric column is cold enough for a period of snow, reaching
a half inch to inch per hour snowfall rates, yet the window of
that will be quite brief so not much additional total.
Dry slot pushed well north late Tuesday afternoon through
evening. Much of thermal profiles within the lowest 12 kft even
when the deeper moisture came back in, was warmer than minus 10
degrees celsius, contributing to riming of snow making it dense
and crusty. Dendrites have only become more involved right on
the back edge of the synoptic snow. The end result of all of
this is lower event total snowfall than had been anticipated,
though northern Oneida County is still likely to have 5-9 inch
totals. Most of the warning counties will end up between 3-5
inches; again a denser crustier snowfall instead of a fluffier
one with more inches. The sharp dropoff in amounts just south
of the warning zones has occurred as expected. That said, a big
impact is still being realized for travel this morning, for most
of the area. The well-advertised strong frontogenetical band of
snow organized, with sleet/freezing rain on its front end. This
band of more intense precipitation has pushed its way southeast
through the area and is now in the Poconos-Catskills.
The well-subfreezing air that was sitting to the northwest,
is now overtaking the region early this morning causing
previously wet untreated roads to ice over. This in addition to
the quick burst of snow is making traveling quite a challenge
this morning; definitely plan on needing extra time for the
commute. Because of this immediate impact, existing
warnings/advisories were left in place and we earlier even
added Wyoming-northern Wayne-Delaware-Sullivan to the advisory
where wintry mix to burst of snow, falling temperatures, and
resulting slick roads are now being realized. Further south
there are lesser amounts of snow-wintry mix yet still eventual
slick/freezing over of roads will be possible as temperatures
continue to dive this morning; a Special Weather Statement was
issued for those areas.
Extremely cold air mass will overspread the region during the
rest of the day. Temperatures will already be in the lower to
mid 20s for most of area by dawn; and upper 20s to mid 30s for
Wyoming Valley-Poconos-southern Catskills but also crashing
lower. By mid afternoon, upper teens to mid 20s areawide, with
northwest gusts frequently 20-30 mph and wind chills single
digits to mid teens. The top layer of drier snow, especially in
central New York, may be prone to blowing/drifting. Also, a
well-mixed boundary layer will cause developing lake effect
southeast of Lake Ontario to be cellular/wavering multibands.
Behind the departing low pressure system a brief but potent
lobe of very cold will swing through the region this evening-
night. A nearly co-located upper wave will rotate across New York at
the same time and support the development of lake effect snow
showers into central New York. 850mb temperatures drop into mid to
upper teens celsius below zero within this air mass, with mixed
layer heights deepening to just under 10k ft. There should be
enough moisture wrapping around the system, combined with these
positive lake effect features to produce several inches of snow
southeast of Lake Ontario. This will be aided by upstream
connection to Lake Huron. Leaning on the regional Canadian
model which usually handles lake effect best, far northern
Seneca, central Cayuga, much of Onondaga, into Madison counties
appear likely to pick up 3-7 inches of a high snow-to-liquid
ratio fluffy snow tonight. We may need an advisory for some of
those zones, once we get past the current event this morning.
Light accumulations will also be found in other parts of central
New York overnight.
Lows tonight will be the coldest so far this season, bottoming
out in the lower teens and single digits above zero. Wind
chills will reach the single digits above and below Zero. Lake
moisture becomes very shallow Wednesday morning, though
scattered snow showers and flurries will linger in much of
central New York before drying up later in the day.
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/...
another cold night is expected Wednesday night, especially over
the eastern zones where less cloud cover may lead to rapid
radiational cooling into the single digits and teens above zero.
Might be a few degrees warmer to the west as the clouds begin to
spread into the region.
A weak clipper type system should pass primarily to our north
on Thursday. Some clouds Wednesday night should keep low
temperatures from tanking with most locations in the 10's. The
clipper system still looks to provide enough lift and be close
enough to the New York thruway corridor for a few spotty snow
showers. A switch in winds ahead of the clipper will bring in
milder air with highs back into the 30's Thursday with a warmer
night Thursday night in the 20's.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
a brief bump up in the temperatures on Friday ahead of another
cold front diving southeast into the region...into the upper
30s and 40s will be replaced by another blast of Canadian air
later Friday into early Saturday. Along with a shot of snow
showers across the north...temperatures will drop back into the
teens and 20s on Saturday. However, this cold snap will be
short- lived with highs on Sunday and Monday back into the
lower to mid 40s...under quiet weather conditions. More
uncertainty early next week with a potential coastal low
developing and trough moving into the Ohio Valley. Both of these
features could provide precipitation. For now we are just
indicating a chance of rain and snow showers.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
winter storm is exiting the region this morning, after causing
snow and restrictions at all terminals. Improvements will
generally occur but kith-kbgm and especially ksyr will get into
intermittent lake effect snow with IFR visibility at times;
kelm-krme meanwhile will initially be at higher end MVFR
ceiling which will scatter and/or lift. Winds will pick up out
of the northwest 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots through
afternoon, before diminishing tonight. VFR will become more
common with time as much drier air continues to move in, however
ksyr is likely to get into lake effect snow this evening, then
working down to kith-kbgm overnight.
Wednesday...northwest winds and scattered lake effect snow
showers/intermittent restrictions mainly in the morning for ksyr-
Wednesday night through Saturday...mainly VFR.
a number of daily records are under threat the next couple of
days during this very cold air mass overspreading the region.
Record low maximums for today November 12th:
Syracuse 32/1996 (broken; it was only about 26 at midnight and
will be colder today), Binghamton 29/1980 (tie; 29 at midnight
and will be colder today), Avoca 33/1910 (will not break; colder
than that during daytime but was much warmer at midnight).
Record low minimums for today November 12th:
Syracuse 18/1933 (expecting to break by midnight; already only 3
degrees away as of 5am), Binghamton 17/1976 (expecting to break
by midnight; already only 5 degrees away as of 5am), Avoca
21/1926 (expecting to break by midnight)
Record low minimums for late tonight-Wednesday 13th:
Syracuse 14/1996 (forecast is 12), Binghamton 14/1986 (forecast
is 12), Avoca 19/1986 (forecast is 16).
Record low maximums for Wednesday 13th:
Syracuse 24/1911 (close; forecast is 25), Binghamton 28/1977
(forecast is 23), Avoca 28/1911 (close; forecast is 30).
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am EST this morning for
New York...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am EST this morning for
Winter Storm Warning until 9 am EST this morning for nyz009-