Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 161950
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
350 PM EDT sun Jun 16 2019
dry weather will briefly move into the region tonight and bring
a few sunny breaks to New York and PA on Monday as a cold front slides
southward. The front will return north on Tuesday and cause
another round of showers.
Near term /through Monday night/...
254 PM update...
Cool air pressing down from Canada will push showers and a cold
front southward into PA overnight. Light winds and partial
clearing will quickly give way to patchy fog and low clouds
The latest model soundings forecast the sun to burn off the low
cloud cover between 1330z and 1430z Monday. Temperatures will
be more seasonable with afternoon highs in the middle to upper-
70s. Isolated showers will remain possible north of the
stationary front over PA.
The front will return north Monday night and bring yet another
round of rain showers to New York and PA.
1035 am update...
Rain showers will continue through early afternoon, then slowly
taper off. The latest model guidance came in slightly cooler
for this afternoon, and based on current temperatures and the
amount of low clouds and showers, this seems reasonable.
Rapid clearing tonight will produce fog overnight.
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
340 PM update
An active period, with multiple waves moving through a moist and
unstable westerly flow. Best chance for periods of showers and
thunderstorms will be across NE PA and perhaps up into the New York
southern tier Tuesday and Tuesday night...meanwhile much of this
timeframe may end up dry further north toward the New York thruway
corridor. Then, the entire County Warning Area has a chance of showers and
storms on Wednesday. Temperatures will be near average with highs
in the 70s (near 80 south) and lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.
Tuesday and Tuesday night: zonal, moist and unstable flow continues
as the stalled frontal boundary remains over the region. Additional
weak disturbances will likely move through the area...but tough
to time these at this range. Therefore went high end chance to
low end likely far south in NE PA, to lower end chance for the
New York southern tier, then mainly dry or slight chance up toward
the thruway corridor of New York. It looks like there could be
modest amounts of instability mainly from the twin tiers south,
so continued chances of thunder here.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: a very persistent pattern continues
with much of the same into this period. A good chance for at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms areawide...with the
higher end pops (likely) across NE PA and the Catskills. Models
seem to agree on increasing instability, therefore went with a
chance of thunder areawide. Will need to watch for locally heavy
downpours and perhaps a few better organized thunderstorms....
depending on just how much instability is realized.
It appears there is good agreement between the latest guidance
that the flow will turn a bit more southwesterly (anticyclonic),
with a brief drier period Wednesday night out ahead of the next
more significant shortwave and low pressure system that looks
to potentially impact our area toward Thursday.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
340 PM update...
Model guidance continues to hone in on a more significant
shortwave trough and associated low pressure system for Thursday
into Thursday night. The finer details such as exact timing and
track remain uncertain at this time range. However, there are
indications that precipitable waters will rise between 1.5 to 2 inches along
with some instability present. Therefore, bumped pops up a bit,
now well into the likely category for showers and a few
thunderstorms. Will need to watch this period for the
possibility of locally heavy rainfall...however the latest 12z
guidance has ever so slightly backed off on this potential as
the low track shifted south.
The upper trough gradually moves east and away from the area
later Thursday night and Friday. Central New York and NE PA get into a
northwest flow pattern as an upper level ridge builds across the
central Great Lakes. Drier low level air including lower dew
points arrive by Friday, but still cannot rule out a stray
shower or two. Northwest winds could be a little breezy. The
upper level ridge builds nearby the area by next weekend, but a
few disturbances will try to ride trough the ridge and approach
from the Ohio Valley. If the ridge amplifies enough it is
likely that much of the area sees dry weather. Will need to
watch trends for the upcoming weekend as uncertainty remains.
Temperatures remain seasonable through the long term period,
with perhaps a gradually warming trend toward the weekend. Highs
will be mainly in the 70s...with lower 80s possible by next
Sunday. Overnight lows will be in 50s to near 60.
Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/...
a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will continue to affect the
terminals through this afternoon as showers slide eastward.
Relative humidities will thicken throughout the atmosphere
overnight and cause additional MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities with patchy dense fog expected.
Clouds are forecast to break up Monday morning under a weak
ridge. VFR conditions will return by mid-morning.
Monday afternoon and Monday night: mainly VFR.
Tuesday through Thursday... restrictions possible with a period
or two of showers. The highest coverage looks to be on
Thursday. A thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out at some