Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 230124
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
924 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019
a cold front will continue moving southeast through
Pennsylvania tonight taking with it any chances for rain. High
pressure builds into the area late this week and remains in
place through the weekend.
Near term /through Friday night/...
9 PM update...
showers and thunderstorms quickly exited. Maybe a sprinkle left
in Pike County. Lowered pops some more and removed thunderstorms
from here on. Clear skies have moved into much of cny allowing
temperatures to tumble into the 50s already in some places.
Lowered min temps a tad closer to guidance.
6 PM update...
lowered pops in the southern tier of cny and took out
thunderstorm chances across the twin tiers. Upped the clouds as
a large area of mid clouds is over the area. By 8 PM
thunderstorms should be exiting. Severe threat already gone.
Very little cape but decent shear. Even some showers showing
rotation. Speed is fast enough that rainfall shouldn't be a
late this afternoon and tonight: a cold front will slowly move
southward through Pennsylvania this evening. Lingering moisture
and lift along the frontal boundary has been enough to produce
an area of showers and thunderstorms. The coverage was increased
through the early evening to account for current trends. 0-6 km
bulk shear values would suggest the potential for some strong
to severe storms but mixed layer cape is rather limited now
under 500 j/kg. Still a thunderstorm or two with gusty winds is
not entirely out of the question. The European model (ecmwf) for the last few
model runs has been suggesting an antifrontal period of showers
later tonight. This has little model support currently so this
forecast is more in line with the rgem and NAM nest which show
a clearing trend throughout the evening. Lows should fall into
the 50's for most locations tonight. Some patchy valley fog can
not be ruled out as well overnight.
Friday and Friday night: high pressure will gradually build
southeast into the region resulting in generally mostly sunny
skies and light winds. This will lead to prime radiational
cooling Friday night. Patchy valley fog will be a potential
concern Friday night as well. Highs should reach 70 with
overnight lows in the 40's and 50's.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
much of the weekend will be dry and on the cooler side of the late
August temperature spectrum with a very dry air mass in place and a
surface high rolling east across srn Quebec into nrn New England.
The one exception to this mainly dry forecast will be on Sunday
afternoon when a cutoff upper low drops in from the northwest and becomes
situated near NYC. There may be enough low level moisture from the
Atlantic getting entrained into the system to trigger a few rain
showers in the Catskills and Poconos Sunday afternoon, but other
than that, weather conditions should remain quiet. Highs on Saturday
and Sunday will top out in the lower to mid 70s. Overnight lows Sat
night will fall into the upper 40s and lower to mid 50s.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the dry air will re-establish itself over the region Sunday night
into Monday with upper level ridging and a narrow surface high
suppressing any large scale upward vertical motion. The pattern
begins to shift back to an active one Monday night through Wednesday
as a slow-moving cold front and upper S/W lift E/newd through the
Ohio Valley into the northeast. There are some timing differences
among the various model solutions, so will keep with middle of the
Road chance pops pushing slowly through the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. Will also see a gradual but weak warming trend through
the week as well with highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s by
Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/...
730 PM update...
Mainly VFR expected through the taf period. The one exception
is the likely occurrence of valley fog at kelm late tonight.
Skies will become clear by 10 PM while winds become calm. Winds
below the boundary layer are light. IFR possible as early as
07z, locks in at 09z, then Burns off around 13z.
Friday some scattered 4k foot cumulus everywhere with high
clouds at kavp.
Tonight light and variable winds or northwest. Friday northwest
to north winds at 5 to 10 kts.
Friday night through Monday...VFR, except late night/early
morning fog possible at kelm.
Monday night and Tuesday... VFR.