Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 192353
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
753 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019
chances for any showers are coming to an end this evening. Tonight
will become clear as high pressure builds across the region.
Tuesday looks to be fair after a foggy start in the valleys of
the twin tier region. Another system will affect the region
Tuesday night and Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms
becoming likely by Wednesday. A strong cold front will pass
south of the region Thursday with more scattered showers. A
large Canadian high pressure system will follow this front and
lead to fair and comfortably cool weather into the weekend.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
little changes with this update. Pulled latest observations and
guidance into the forecast, and removed any mention of showers
from the rest of our counties by 0z. Previous discussion
For the later evening and overnight high pressure builds across New York
and PA with mainly clear skies and light winds. Typical valley fog
will form under this synoptic set-up.
Then for Tuesday most of the day will be fair with the next wave
taking shape over the Ohio Valley. The low-level flow will back to
southwest in the afternoon ahead of this wave and accelerate by
evening. This will lead to significant moisture and warm
advection and scattered showers and storms breaking out in the
evening and especially overnight. Have probability of precipitation increasing through
Tuesday night to likely probability of precipitation late.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/...
period will be rather unsettled as an upper long wave trough
digs into the western Great Lakes and short waves rotate through
the area. On Wednesday, short wave looks to tap southern
moisture and will likely develop widespread showers and
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain.
For Thursday, surface cold front sweeps through with additional
showers and storms. At this range, timing differences are
evident in the models and will determine the severity of the
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
high pressure and a northerly flow build in behind the front on
Thursday night. This flow continues through the period under a
large upper trough. Surface front will stall south of the area
and continue to be the focus of showers and storms right into
Sunday. It's possible that a stray shower could get into the
southern sections of the forecast area at times, but pops are
too low to be included for now. Otherwise the period will be dry
and somewhat cooler than normal.
Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions continue, with any lingering broken cumulus in
around syr clearing out over the next couple of hours. Skies
stay mainly clear across all sites overnight as winds turn light
and variable, with valley fog expected early Tuesday. Vlifr fog
is expected at Elm, IFR br at bgm and fuel alternate br at ith.
The rest of the terminals should stay at VFR.
Tuesday afternoon...small chance of a thunderstorm at kavp
Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise VFR.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...restrictions possible
in showers and storms, especially Wednesday afternoon-evening.
Thursday through Sunday...VFR conditions likely.