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000 
FXUS61 KBGM 141432
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1032 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak front will blow through today, with some extra passing 
clouds and perhaps even a few brief sprinkles in parts of 
Central New York. Fairly quiet weather will continue through 
Tuesday night. However, a low pressure system will bring rain 
area wide on Wednesday, followed by chilly and blustery 
conditions later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

Some lake enhanced showers off Erie will drift east this morning
and afternoon and may bring some light rain or sprinkles, 
mainly to the central Southern Tier and the Finger Lakes. 
Otherwise the near term is fairly quiet today. Have updated the 
grids to reflect the precipitation trends and the latest 
guidance. Also have adjusted the temps to the slow recovery 
happening this morning. 

420 AM Update... 
Fairly quiet weather is anticipated today through Tuesday, 
though not without some features of influence.

High pressure has already bypassed the area and is pushing 
offshore, making room for the weak cold front now edging into 
the Finger Lakes. That said, the legacy of the high pressure is 
an abundance of dry air still resident over our region. This 
will make showers difficult to muster for the front as it moves 
west to east through the region today. A fair amount of clouds 
will at least get into Central New York, and perhaps even a few 
light showers especially in western Steuben-Yates. Northeast PA 
meanwhile will end up with more sunshine other than a brief 
deck of early morning clouds along/east of I-81, and probably 
not a single raindrop. Winds will veer westerly and pick up 
somewhat behind the front, with cool air advection stopping 
temperatures from rising above the 50s in the Central Southern 
Tier through Finger Lakes and the NY Thruway corridor including 
Syracuse- Utica. Further south, enough initial warming will 
occur for lower 60s at least in the valleys, and perhaps even 
some mid 60s in the Delaware Valley of Sullivan-Pike Counties.

Much of the area will fall into the 30s for lows tonight, though
there will also still be a bit of pressure gradient wind at least
in the evening, as well as lake clouds extending through parts 
of the area and even lake effect sprinkles north of the NY 
Thruway. High pressure will nose into Northeast PA-Southern Tier
NY near dawn. There may be some patchy frost, but details of 
locations will depend on especially on where lake clouds turn 
out to be absent.

Quiet and dry Tuesday, as high pressure skims by the area, with 
plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

High pressure pushes out into the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday
morning as a vertically stacked low moves across the Great 
Lakes with a strong surface cold front extending across Western
NY and south into the Ohio Valley. The front should plow through
the region Wednesday afternoon with showers and possibly even
some thunderstorms. By Wednesday evening, a Coastal Low develops
and rapidly deepens, however models currently disagree on the 
placement and track of this feature at this time. 

The intensity and exact track of this coastal low will have huge
implications on the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday 
morning. The GFS, keeps the low further out to sea and tracks 
the low right over the 70/40 benchmark with the bulk of any 
heavy rain falling to our east across Southern New England.

However, the Euro has a much more intense low developing and 
tracking over Long Island and then northeast into New England. 
This scenario would likely bring some impactful weather to our 
area, with heavy rainfall to the Catskills, especially the 
eastern Catskills and also winds gusts would be much stronger.
Flooding would be the main concern, even with the fairly dry
antecedent conditions and WPC has introduced a large Marginal
Excessive Rainfall risk for Day 3. However, due to the 
uncertainty/spread in the models at this time, will hold off 
mentioning in the HWO for now and would like to see better 
agreement with the 12Z runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...

As mentioned in the short term discussion, the track of the
coastal low will determine how the forecast turns out for
Thursday morning. As Euro would keep the possibility for heavy
rain across the Catskills through Thursday morning and possibly
into Thursday afternoon. For now, a blend of model guidance
brings in strong NW flow with low clouds and moisture pushing  
southeastward off Lake Ontario. At the very least, we can expect
some showers Thursday outside of NE PA.

Cold air advection will pick up through the day, and with a
tight pressure gradient, wind gusts will be quite strong,
especially across the higher terrain.  

High pressure builds back into the area on Friday as ridge
starts to build across the Eastern U.S. This should help
temperatures warm back up, after the cool and blustery day on
Thursday. A warming trend may continue right through next
weekend as ridge overtakes the Eastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With a fuel alternate deck letting go of KAVP right around 12Z, 
VFR conditions are generally expected through this TAF period 
for all terminals with the following slight caveats. For the NY
terminals, a VFR ceiling around 4-6 kft will exist along and 
behind a passing weak cold front for a time midday through 
afternoon, and perhaps even a sprinkle or two. There is a small 
chance that KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM could briefly dip into MVFR. As
the front moves through the area, winds will veer from light 
southeast/south, to west/eventually northwest 8-12 knots midday
through afternoon before slackening tonight. Late tonight, KELM
could potentially get valley fog but there will also be lake 
effect clouds in the vicinity which may prevent it from forming.
Confidence is pretty low and so that fog has not been included 
in the KELM TAF for now. 

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday into Wednesday night...Restrictions expected as low 
pressure system moves through the region with rain showers.

Thursday through Thursday night...Scattered showers and minor 
restrictions, especially for the NY terminals.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP

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