Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 150723
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
323 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019
high pressure will build into the region today but quickly gives
way to a cold frontal passage on Monday with some showers. High
pressure then builds back into the region through late week.
Near term /through Monday/...
lingering moisture from the previous system has lead to fog and
low stratus being around early this morning. We linger the
cloud cover longer than model guidance into the mid-morning as
per usual occurrence around here. More in the way of sunshine
is expected for this afternoon before clouds increase again
ahead of the next shortwave. Highs today look warmer in
northeast PA where clouds will be later to arrive. 925 mb
modeled temperatures indicate model guidance may be a touch
cool in these areas and may get into the upper 70's. More in the
way of cloud cover ahead of the next shortwave will keep high
temperatures a few degrees cooler further north.
A shortwave looks to move through late Sunday afternoon through
the evening hours across the New York thruway region. Moisture looks
rather limited but sufficient enough for a few light showers
Sunday evening. Another shortwave looks to track a little
further south by Monday morning resulting in a few showers for
the remainder of the region. These showers should quickly move
east of the region by Monday night. Many spots will only fall to
around 60 Sunday night with the clouds. A push of cooler air
behind the second shortwave should result in highs only getting
to 70 for many locations on Monday.
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/...
3 am update...
high pressure will build in to begin an extended period of dry
and quiet weather.
Behind the shortwave from Monday, large dry Canadian high
pressure will gradually sprawl over the region Monday night
through Wednesday. Through the period, upper trough will amplify
yet also shift offshore with time. This will make room for an
upper ridge that will start leaning into the area Wednesday
End result of this is plenty of dry air, and mainly clear sky
other than occasional high cirrus from waves glancing to our
east within the departing upper trough. We will have near
average highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Tuesday, plus another
degree or two on Wednesday as we get just on the cusp of a
coming warming trend for the rest of the week.
Long term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
315 am update...
persistent high pressure at the surface, combined with strong
ridging aloft, will present US with an extended period of dry
weather and wide diurnal ranges between seasonably cool nights
and warm days. This pattern will give US a mostly clear sky,
and thus plenty of sun by day and radiational cooling with
typical valley fog each night.
Highs will warm from mainly 70s Thursday, to upper 70s-lower 80s
by Saturday. Lows will be mid 40s to lower 50s Wednesday night,
trending up slightly to mainly 50s by Friday night.
GFS-ECMWF-Canadian operational models are in agreement on
keeping things dry and warm through at least the remainder of
Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
fairly high confidence of IFR/LIFR fog and low stratus for kavp,
kelm and kbgm through the overnight. More uncertainty is
present at kith and krme where fog formation is possible toward
sunrise still. Ceilings will be slow to break up through mid-
morning then VFR conditions into tomorrow night. Winds look to
be under 10 knots throughout the taf period.
Monday...mainly VFR, though a small chance of showers/brief
Monday night through Friday...VFR except late night/early
morning valley fog probable for at least kelm; possibly others.