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fxus63 kbis 201918 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
218 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 654 has been issued for central North
Dakota this afternoon and evening.

Organized line of thunderstorms has formed along the cold front
similar to cam model forecast. The href ensemble depicts some
short to medium length supercells tracking northeast along the
front and nothing has changed to the anticipated scenario and
storm Mode, with a linear mesoscale convective system expected to form and track across
central into eastern North Dakota through this evening.

A secondary thrust of severe weather may be possible across
southwest and south central North Dakota late this evening and
overnight as the cam models now suggest.

Saturday will see widespread showers and and scattered
thunderstorms as the main upper low tracks into the region.

In addition to the severe weather, heavy rains will be a concern,
although current indications are the rainfall will not completely
overlap the September rains from last 2 weeks.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

After this rain event, mainly dry weather is forecast through
Tuesday, with scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Much
cooler weather Wednesday through Friday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1159 am CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Hazards to aviation focused on thunderstorms Friday afternoon
across the west, impacting kdik-kmot initially. Line of storms
will move east by late afternoon impacting kmot-kbis-kjms late
afternoon and evening.

Then late tonight and Saturday MVFR to IFR conditions in
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expect over the
west and central.


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...

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