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fxus63 kbis 100944 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
344 am CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 330 am CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Wind chill temperatures of 25 below to near 40 below this morning
and once again tonight and Wednesday morning highlight the short
term forecast period.

This morning, broad cyclonic flow continued in the mid-levels with
a low pressure centered over northeastern Canada and a high
amplitude ridge over the western coast. An Arctic air mass
delivered by the long northerly fetch associated with the mid-
level cyclone was locked in place this morning over much of the
central US. At 08z a surface high was centered over western North
Dakota which is forecast to track southeastward through the

Today, a shortwave embedded in the northerly mid-level flow will
swing south over Manitoba and towards the upper Mississippi
Valley. Ahead of the cold front associated with this wave and
under increasing DCVA, weak warm air advection is expected to
develop and tighten a baroclinic zone over far southwestern North
Dakota. This weakly forced regime should produce some light snow
this afternoon and evening in the southwest counties (most likely
Golden Valley, slope, and bowman) with a few tenths up expected
but localized amounts up to one inch possible.

Temperatures today should be able to rebound enough to bring our
coldest areas of the central and north out of Wind Chill Advisory
criteria this afternoon. Temperatures quickly fall this evening
as the next shot of cold air advection arrives with another Wind
Chill Advisory likely needed for tonight. Once again wind chills
to 35 below zero are expected tonight along and North/East of the
Missouri River.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 330 am CST Tue Dec 10 2019

The long term forecast period includes very cold wind chill
temperatures on Wednesday and periodic chances for snow Wednesday
through Friday.

While surface temperatures of -10 f to near -20 f with wind
chills of -25 f to near -35 f will be widespread in areas east
and north of the Missouri River early Wednesday morning,
temperatures in the west should rebound a bit quicker with
southerly low level flow developing ahead of a shortwave coming
out of the northern rockies. At the time this fairly progressive
and open-wave low doesn't seem to carry very impressive ascent
with it with most ensemble guidance keeping quantitative precipitation forecast around 0.1" at
most. Thus, a quick hitting one to maybe two inches generally in
an area stretching from our northwest through eastern North Dakota
seems reasonable from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.

Surface temperatures on Thursday rebound under warm westerly low
level flow and zonal flow aloft. Highs nearing 40 are expected in
the southwest, 20s central and northwest and teens from The Turtle
mountains through the James River Valley. A cold front arrives on
Friday, bringing a chance of snow and dropping temperatures
through the afternoon. Temperatures Saturday morning may drop
below zero again with highs in the single digits across most of
the state to the teens in the southwest.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

Pockets of MVFR/IFR stratus will continue to impact mostly
southern terminals, including kdik-kbis-kjms behind an exiting
cold front. Cigs are expected to improve to VFR over the next
several hours. VFR expected for the remainder of the taf forecast


Bis watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 am MST/ today for


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