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fxus64 kbmx 200554 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1254 am CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

for 06z aviation.


Short term...
/updated at 0336 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

Currently we have a surface frontal boundary that extends from east
MS into SW al, then continuing into the East Gulf of Mexico.
Generally along and south of this front, there is a nice line of
convection that has formed with heating. I do not expect anything
strong across our counties here in central Alabama as we are on
the drier side of the boundary. However, will continue to carry an
isolated mention in for Sumter and Marengo counties through
sunset for any convection that might drift our way before falling
apart. Winds are beginning to taper down some across the area as
the ridge settles in over the Atlantic states and pressure
gradients relax. With a drier and cooler flow, overnight lows
tonight should be 10 to 12 degrees lower. Some mid/high cloudiness
is possible in the west half of c Alabama as a lingering byproduct of
storms currently ongoing across MS.

Only change made to the extended was to raise pops for Monday in
the northwest counties with the approach of the next system. Did
not adjust any other time periods due to much disagreement in the
extended guidance.


Long term...
/updated at 0351 am CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/
Friday through Wednesday.

The upper-level pattern will support a large area of high pressure
across the eastern Continental U.S. On Friday. With the surface high centered
in North Carolina, the airmass associated with easterly flow will
result in temperatures much closer to average for this time of year.
Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected on Friday with
lows in the lower to mid 60 for Saturday morning. A slow warming
trend should take place over the weekend and into the upcoming week
as the high pressure retreats. 90s should become widespread for
Sunday and Monday.

An upper-level trough passing through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley will be associated with an approaching cold front for late
Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances are currently expected to diminish
as the front moves toward Alabama due to poor moisture quality and
weak low-level convergence. An airmass change also appears unlikely,
meaning above average temperatures should continue into Wednesday.



00z taf discussion.

VFR conditions are forecast the entire period, with only mid and
high level clouds.

Surface high pressure is centered over the Carolinas tonight, with
east to southeasterly winds at local terminals. Expect speeds of 4-
7kts overnight. Mid level deck could expand overnight to most
terminals, but heights will remain at 6-7kft. Wind speeds increase
Friday morning to 8-12kts, with low level flow remaining from the
east to southeast. There will be enough moisture for some cumulus to
develop around 5-6k ft along with some high level cirrus. Otherwise,
conditions remain dry.



Fire weather...

Except for a very isolated shower or thunderstorm possible across
far southwestern counties this afternoon, dry and warm conditions
will continue through the weekend. Afternoon relative humidity
values are expected to remain above 30 percent each afternoon
through the end of the week. Kbdi values will remain elevated as
drought conditions persist.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 61 85 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Anniston 61 86 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 65 87 64 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 67 89 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 63 87 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 61 84 64 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 64 88 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Troy 62 87 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 0


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/...

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