Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kbmx 170024 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
724 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

for 00z aviation.


Short term...
/updated at 0334 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/
through tonight.

Deep layer ridge axis stretches south to north over the lower
Mississippi River valley, with light north to northeasterly low
level flow over central Alabama. A scattered cu field has
developed this afternoon, but a dry airmass has kept a lid on most
convective growth. A shower is not completely out of the
question, but coverage will be less than 10% and any activity

Temperatures have once again warmed into the upper 90s, with
Montgomery hitting 100f again today. With dewpoints in the 60s, we
will cool off into the mid 60s to lower 70s again tonight.
Unfortunately, temperatures will remain above normal through the
week, with little to no chances of rain each day. No changes were
need to the previous long term discussion/forecast.


Long term...
/updated at 0359 am CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/

Tuesday through Sunday.

Drier air will wrap around the west side of Hurricane Humberto on
Tuesday and Wednesday as subsidence increases across the southeast
conus, leading to an increasingly hotter airmass under a deep-layer
ridge. Continental northerly low-level flow will be associated
with temperatures soaring back into the upper 90s. Several 100-101
degree readings are likely as the forecast area remains in the
grips of an intensifying drought.

Relief appears to be in sight for Thursday through the weekend with
models indicating a wedge of high pressure along and east of the
Appalachians. Temperatures should drop by 8 to 12 degrees, meaning
afternoon highs will range from the mid and upper 80s in the east,
to the lower 90s in the west.



00z taf discussion.

A cold front will move toward central Alabama on Tuesday. This
front was accompanied by a weak upper impulse moving down the back
east side of deep ridging. Therefore, the front will not make it
through the area and will likely dissipate.

The atmosphere will remain quite dry through the period. Clouds
will be limited and only a few cumulus are expected. Winds will
generally maintain a northerly component, light at night and
becoming 6-7kts daytime.



Fire weather...

Dry and hot conditions will continue through at least Wednesday,
with relative humidity values falling to around 30-35 percent
each afternoon. Only a slight chance of rain exists in the
southwest portion of the forecast area Thursday. Other forecast
periods will be dry. Kbdi will remain elevated as drought
conditions persist.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 65 98 69 96 68 / 0 0 0 10 0
Anniston 69 98 69 97 68 / 0 0 0 10 0
Birmingham 72 99 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 71 100 72 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 70 100 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 71 97 71 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
Montgomery 71 100 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 10
Troy 68 99 70 99 70 / 0 0 0 10 10


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations