Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 210725
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
325 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019
high pressure over the north country will continue to provide fair
and dry conditions through the weekend along with well above normal
temperatures and some gusty winds Sunday. An upper low moving east
from the Great Lakes will bring scattered showers Monday and
Tuesday, with high pressure returning for Wednesday. Several
disturbances will bring chances for showers Thursday, and again
Near term /through Sunday/...
as of 325 am EDT Saturday...the last weekend of Summer 2019 has
arrived and it's going to go out with a bang! Surface high pressure
and a ridge aloft which have controlled the north country's weather
this past week will center over the forecast area today and slide
east off the Atlantic Seaboard on Sunday. The result will be a
continuation of dry weather, but also a return of Summer-like
temperatures as a warm south/southwesterly return flow develops on
the backside of the departing high. For today, skies will be
generally sunny to mostly sunny with a few fair weather cumulus
during the afternoon, and temps will warm well above seasonal values
into the upper 70s to low 80s. The surface to mid-level flow begins
to increase tonight into Sunday offering overnight lows very mild in
the mid/upper 50s from the Champlain Valley westward, while east of
The Greens winds will be more decoupled with lows right around 50.
For Sunday, temps warm even further as southerly flow continues to
increase with low/mid 80s expected. In addition, there will be a
noticeable increase in mid/high clouds as deep moisture in the 500-
700mb layer traverse the region and a decent 925-850mb jet of 30-
40kts will also aid in developing wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range
across the St. Lawrence Valley.
Short term /Sunday night through Monday/...
as of 325 am EDT Saturday...we continue to see the trend toward
a slower onset time of precipitation Sunday night and Monday.
Its now looking like most of the area stays dry Sunday night
with maybe a few showers moving into the Saint Lawrence valley
around dawn Monday morning. During the day on Monday there
should be a relatively sharp precipitation gradient with showers
moving into northern New York during the morning hours and then
into Vermont Monday afternoon. Thus have precipitation chances
increasing throughout the day on Monday with most places
reaching the likely to categorical ranges during the afternoon
hours. Precipitation amounts on Monday will generally be in the
tenth to third of an inch range. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper 50s to upper 60s with highs on Monday in the 70s to
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 325 am EDT Saturday...Monday night into Tuesday we will
have an upper trough moving across the area and eventually
closing off just to our east. Showers are likely during the
first part of the night Monday night with decreasing chances
overnight. However...steepening lapse rates associated with some
cooling aloft will lead to the redevelopment of showers on
Tuesday. Have mention of a chance of showers for now...but will
need to keep an eye on this as we could easily have a greater
likelihood of showers. The clouds and showers on Tuesday will
make for below normal temperatures with highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. The closed off upper low does remain progressive so
precipitation will be coming to an end Tuesday night and
Wednesday is looking like a nice day with dry weather and highs
in the 60s. Southwest flow aloft develops over the area on
Thursday and a warming trend will take place despite increasing
clouds and precipitation chances with highs expected to be in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Dry weather returns for Friday and
temperatures will be right around seasonal normals.
Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/...
through 00z Sunday...mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the next 24 hours. It appears through the night that winds just
off the surface should stay strong enough to inhibit fog at kslk
and kmpv but could see some brief IFR ceilings at kslk from
10-12z. Otherwise, sky clear and/or a few fair weather cumulus is
expected through the day and into Saturday night with winds
variable less than 6kts.
Sunday: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday night: VFR. Chance rain showers.
Monday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely rain showers.
Monday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance rain showers.
Tuesday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance rain showers.
Tuesday night: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance rain showers.
Wednesday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig weather.