Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 251412
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1012 am EDT sun Aug 25 2019
pleasant late August weather conditions will persist across the
north country through Tuesday as high pressure remains anchored
over southern Quebec and New England. Temperatures will slowly
moderate, with valley highs trending up from the mid 70s today,
to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Tuesday. A weakening occluded
front will bring the next chance for rain showers, most likely
during Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Near term /through Monday/...
as of 1008 am EDT Sunday...current forecast is on track this
morning with the last of the fog currently clearing Montpelier.
Any remaining cloud cover will quickly erode through the morning
hours with less moisture in the boundary layer and a weaker
subsidence inversion. Did bump up temperatures 1-2 degrees as
heating is occurring a bit quicker than originally anticipated
with abundant cloud cover. Nevertheless, it'll be a beautiful
day across the north country and hope you can get out and enjoy
Previous discussion...high pressure anchored over southern
Quebec and northern New England will bring tranquil late August
weather conditions to our region. Some patchy stratus in low-
level easterly flow exist across S-central Vermont and the northern
Adirondacks per surface observations and satellite imagery early
this morning. These clouds should drift westward and eventually
dissipate toward mid-day. Further north, considerable valley
fog exists at sunrise, but will steadily dissipate thru 14z or
so. Otherwise should see mainly clear conditions today through
Monday. With more sunshine than yesterday and a gradual
moderation of 925mb temperatures, should be about 5 degrees
warmer today (valley highs mid-70s) and a couple degrees warmer
again for Monday (valley highs upper-70s). Good radiational
cooling tonight with lows generally mid-40s to lower-50s, and
some patchy fog development 05-12z across the valleys of
central/ern Vermont and within the valleys of the northern Adirondack
region. Pops none through the Monday.
Short term /Monday night through Tuesday/...
as of 300 am EDT Sunday...weak ridging aloft and associated
high pressure at the surface will continue to bring dry weather
to the area Monday night and Tuesday. Clear skies and light
winds Monday night will lead to lows in the upper 40s to upper
50s with some spots in the northern Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom pushing 40 degrees. Warmer 925 millibar temperatures and
a good deal of sun on Tuesday will allow highs to get into the
70s to around 80.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 300 am EDT Sunday...eventually we will see the upper
ridge gradually shift east Tuesday night and southwest flow
aloft develops on Wednesday. This pattern will persist through
the end of the week and thus looking at an increased threat of
showers during this period. Looks like Wednesday afternoon and
evening will have the best chance for the showers as a cold
front moves across the region and at some point all areas should
see likely precipitation chances. Not seeing any parameters
that suggests organized convection during this period and thus
will leave weather as showers. Highs in the extended should be
right around seasonal normals with a trend toward cooler
temperatures over the weekend as a pattern change is expected.
Aviation /14z Sunday through Thursday/...
through 12z Sunday...rather tranquil period of aviation wx
conditions. Localized intervals of LIFR at slk/mpv/mss will
dissipate through 1330z this morning. Otherwise, bkn-
ovc030-050 will affect krut thru 14z as areas of stratus advect
westward, with mainly sky clear elsewhere. Winds generally light
north to northeast as high pressure shifts eastward across
Quebec. Should see redevelopment of fog overnight at mpv/slk
with light and variable winds areawide.
Monday: VFR. Patchy br.
Monday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Tuesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Tuesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance rain showers.
Wednesday night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance rain showers.
Thursday: mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance rain showers.