Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 231947
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
347 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019
an upper level trough passing through the region over the next 2
days will provide partly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers
each day. Temperatures will be seasonal in the 70s through Thursday,
followed by a warming trend with highs back into the mid to upper
80s to end the week. The weekend looks to begin dry on Saturday, but
end with a chance of showers on Sunday.
Near term /through Wednesday night/...
as of 347 PM EDT Tuesday...a weak surface cold front on the leading
edge of an approaching upper trough has sparked a few isolated
showers across northern New York, but going into this evening expect
the activity to wane as surface high pressure builds in under the
trough. Scattered to numerous cumulus clouds across the region this
afternoon should generally dissipate this evening to a mainly clear
sky where some patchy fog is likely, along with cool overnight
temperatures in the 50s. As the upper trough shifts further into the
region on Wednesday, additional isolated terrain driven showers are
possible, but with the surface high in place expect coverage to be
very limited and likely more confined to the high terrain. Temps
will be seasonal in the 70s. Wednesday night should be a repeat of
tonight with any afternoon showers dissipating to clear skies with
temps ranging through the 50s again.
Short term /Thursday through Thursday night/...
as of 347 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday will bring a chance for showers
primarily across northern New York as a weak boundary sags south
across our area during the afternoon hours. Mid-level capping and
lack of deep layer moisture will limit both areal and vertical
extent of these storms. Temperatures tomorrow will warm a few
degrees from today as 925mb temps are around 19c supporting highs
comfortably in the upper 70s to low 80s. Near normal nighttime
temperatures in the low 60s are expected under mostly clear skies.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 347 PM EDT Tuesday...ridge of high pressure remains over the
eastern Seaboard through Friday and Saturday with temperatures
warming a few degrees each day. Temperatures warm back into the mid
to upper 80s under west/northwest flow aloft keeping relatively dry airmass in
place overhead with pwats only around 1". So while warm, it will not
feel as oppressive as this past weekend. Chances for scattered
shower/thunderstorm exist each day but lack of forcing should keep
areal coverage low. Flow turns out of the SW Saturday night ahead of
approaching shortwave. Precipitation chances increase with more
widespread rain expected Sunday/Sunday night as pwats increase back
towards 1.5". Active weather remains through early next week as fast
mid-level flow brings series of impulses through the north country.
Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/...
through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with scattered-broken cumulus this afternoon trending mainly clear
overnight, then back to few-scattered cumulus on Wednesday. A line of
broken showers may impact kslk in the next hour but no flight
restrictions are expected. Winds will be north-northwest less than 8kts
through the period, except for southeast drainage overnight at krut.
Wednesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance shra, slight chance thunderstorms and rain.
Thursday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance shra, slight chance thunderstorms and rain.