Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 240243
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1043 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019
an upper level trough passing through the region over the next
two days will provide partly cloudy skies and isolated
afternoon showers each day. Temperatures will be seasonal in the
70s through Thursday, followed by a warming trend with highs
back into the mid to upper 80s to end the week. The weekend
looks to begin dry on Saturday, but end with a chance of showers
Near term /through Wednesday night/...
as of 1043 PM EDT Tuesday...overall forecast in good shape with
just some minor tweaks. Precipitation has come to an end...but
clearing has been real slow with respect to the clouds. Forecast
has this handled well and only tweak was to match current
temperatures. Rest of forecast in good shape.
a weak surface cold front on the leading edge of an approaching
upper trough has sparked a few isolated showers across northern
New York, but going into this evening expect the activity to
wane as surface high pressure builds in under the trough.
Scattered to numerous cumulus clouds across the region this
afternoon should generally dissipate this evening to a mainly
clear sky where some patchy fog is likely, along with cool
overnight temperatures in the 50s. As the upper trough shifts
further into the region on Wednesday, additional isolated
terrain driven showers are possible, but with the surface high
in place expect coverage to be very limited and likely more
confined to the high terrain. Temps will be seasonal in the 70s.
Wednesday night should be a repeat of tonight with any
afternoon showers dissipating to clear skies with temps ranging
through the 50s again.
Short term /Thursday through Thursday night/...
as of 347 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday will bring a chance for showers
primarily across northern New York as a weak boundary sags south
across our area during the afternoon hours. Mid-level capping and
lack of deep layer moisture will limit both areal and vertical
extent of these storms. Temperatures tomorrow will warm a few
degrees from today as 925mb temps are around 19c supporting highs
comfortably in the upper 70s to low 80s. Near normal nighttime
temperatures in the low 60s are expected under mostly clear skies.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 347 PM EDT Tuesday...ridge of high pressure remains over the
eastern Seaboard through Friday and Saturday with temperatures
warming a few degrees each day. Temperatures warm back into the mid
to upper 80s under west/northwest flow aloft keeping relatively dry airmass in
place overhead with pwats only around 1". So while warm, it will not
feel as oppressive as this past weekend. Chances for scattered
shower/thunderstorm exist each day but lack of forcing should keep
areal coverage low. Flow turns out of the SW Saturday night ahead of
approaching shortwave. Precipitation chances increase with more
widespread rain expected Sunday/Sunday night as pwats increase back
towards 1.5". Active weather remains through early next week as fast
mid-level flow brings series of impulses through the north country.
Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 00z Thursday...overall looking at VFR conditions through
the period. Plenty of mid and high level clouds over the area as
southwest flow aloft persists. These clouds should start to
decrease in areal coverage after 06z. The most clearing will
take place over northern New York and with light winds...kslk
could briefly get some IFR visibilities due to fog between 07z
and 11z. Winds will generally be light...with a northwest wind
developing after 15z. Speeds however will generally be under 10
Wednesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance shra, slight chance thunderstorms and rain.
Thursday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday: VFR. Chance shra, chance thunderstorms and rain.