Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 231344
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
944 am EDT Fri Aug 23 2019
building high pressure across Ontario will bring several tranquil
days of weather to the north country. Light northwesterly winds
will allow low dew points to filter in the the region, and
highs will generally reach the low to mid 70s today and through
the weekend. The next chance for any widespread precipitation
will hold off until the middle of next week.
Near term /through Saturday/...
as of 944 am EDT Friday...going forecast in real good shape.
Just some minor tweaks to temperatures and sky cover otherwise
looking like a quiet day with plenty of sunshine...dry
conditions...and temperatures a few degrees below normal.
a synoptically quiescent short-term period is forecast as a
broad surface anticyclone strengthens north of the Great Lakes,
and serves as our controlling weather feature through the next
36 hours. Will continue to see daytime northwest winds 5-10 mph, and
dry advection allowing dewpoints to fall into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Once daytime heating/mixing begins, anticipate
localized upslope cloudiness and patchy fog will dissipate.
Should see just a few fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the
higher terrain for the balance of the late morning and afternoon
hours. Some continued low-level cold air advection takes place today, with
850mb temperatures falling to between +7c and +9c. Should
support valley highs generally 71-75f, except locally in the
upper 70s with some downslope/adiabatic warming into the CT
A weak 700-500mb closed low develops to our south tonight into
Saturday, but with limited moisture available, not expecting
any significant weather associated with this feature. Continued
with mostly clear skies with lows tonight in the upper 40s to
lower 50s, except locally in the mid 50s in the immediate
Champlain Valley. Should see localized patchy fog 06-12z
Saturday in the normally favored valleys of central/ern Vermont and
the valleys within the northern Adirondack region.
Surface anticyclone builds eastward across Quebec on Saturday,
with a persistence forecast of mostly sunny conditions and highs
generally in the low-mid 70s across the north country.
Short term /Saturday night through Sunday/...
as of 445 am EDT Friday...synoptically, we'll be in elongated
SW-NE longwave trof with a weak 500 mb cutoff across the area
aloft. At the surface...high pressure across eastern
Quebec/Maine. Slight cool pool aloft would normally mean
instability but surface temperatures are not that warm and
lacking moisture with dewpoints in the l-m50s. Other than some
fair wx clouds...keeping things dry and pleasant.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 445 am EDT Friday...weak trough, as mentioned in short
term discussion, lifts northeast and thus some shortwave ridging
develops for Monday-Monday night. This will continue dry weather
across the area. Eventually an upper trough gets established to
our west and southwest flow will develop over the area. Upper
level energy and a frontal boundary, mainly in the Wed-Thu time
frame will bring the threat of showers to the region. GFS and
Canadian slightly faster with arrival of boundary as its not
influenced as much as potential tropical system sliding well southeast
of New England as European model (ecmwf) is much stronger.
The general trend with surface high sliding east and return flow is
slow moderating trend through the week with chance of showers late
Tuesday (esp north ny) and then Wed with decreasing chances for Thu
although still a threat of showers with next shortwave energy
attempting to rotate into area.
Seasonable temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints
largely in the 50s until Wed/Thu. Overnight lows in the 40s/50s sun-
Mon nights then warming into 50s/60s for the rest of the week.
Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
through 12z Saturday...the daylight hours will feature sky clear-
few050-060 with fair weather cumulus dotting higher terrain
areas late this morning through the afternoon. Light northwest winds
will increase to 7-10kt during the late morning through
afternoon hours...becoming light and variable once again
tonight. Should see local LIFR at mpv/slk associated with
nocturnal fog development 06-12z Saturday.
Saturday: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig weather.
Sunday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig weather.
Sunday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Monday: VFR. No sig weather.
Monday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance rain showers.