Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 231446
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1046 am EDT Tue Jul 23 2019
low pressure riding along a stalled frontal boundary across the mid
Atlantic will continue to provide rain showers to southern portions
of the region this morning before high pressure building into the
Great Lakes shifts east. Drier conditions are then generally
forecast for the remainder of the week with only a slight chance of
showers on Thursday. Temperatures will be seasonal in the 70s
through Thursday, followed by a warming trend with highs back into
the mid to upper 80s to end the week.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
as of 1045 am EDT Tuesday...quick update to sky cover for the
remainder of the day, otherwise previous forecast is in great
shape with prevailing showers ending across south-central VT,
and increasing sunshine from west to east this afternoon.
Previous discussion...a frontal boundary remains draped along
the New England coast this morning, with a wave of low pressure
traversing along it. Moisture is surging back north in response,
and this has allowed rain to begin redeveloping over mainly
central and southern Vermont and eastern New York this morning. This will
continue for a few more hours, then the rain should taper off
from west to east once the low shifts to our southeast. A few
showers may pop up across the higher terrain this afternoon as a
weak upper shortwave rotates through, but overall anticipate
dry weather under partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will range
from the lower 70s in southeast Vermont due to cloud cover, to the
upper 70s in the St Lawrence and northern Champlain valleys.
Skies will continue to clear out overnight, though some
lingering high clouds are possible over Vermont as yet another wave
of low pressure slides along the coastal front. Lows will be in
the lower to mid 50s, though the usual cold spots in the
Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom could drop into the 40s. Partly
sunny with a few mountain rain showers on Wednesday. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 70s.
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday/...
as of 322 am EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night and Thursday will
feature pretty quiet weather with temperatures slightly cooler
than normal overnight and near normal for Max temps. On
Wednesday night a surface ridge will be building into our area.
For Thursday our region will still be under influence of
building surface high pressure. Temperatures will reach the
upper 70s to around 80 as 850 temps bump up into the teens
during the afternoon. May have some instability driven showers
and thunderstorms bubble up in the afternoon, though no driving
surface feature to add forcing.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 322 am EDT Tuesday...aforementioned surface high will
slide southward and remain anchored over the southeastern conus
through early next week. This will keep our area in a warm
southwesterly flow through the extended portion of the forecast.
Temperatures will warm a bit each day, and be back in the upper
80s for the weekend. There will continue to be a lack of surface
forcing, with a couple weak systems staying well north of our
area. Some surface instability will develop though and could pop
off a few showers or thunderstorms Sat and sun afternoons. No
significant weather on the horizon at this time.
Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/...
through 12z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period, with exceptions at kmpv, krut, and kslk.
Krut and kmpv are currently vlifr due to low stratus, but this
should lift by 13z, with VFR/MVFR thereafter. Rain will come to
an end at krut as well this morning. Additional MVFR/IFR will be
possible at kmpv and kslk after 08z Wednesday due to patchy fog.
Light and variable winds are expected through early this
morning, becoming northwest at 5 to 10 knots, then light and
variable again overnight tonight.
Wednesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance shra, slight chance thunderstorms and rain.
Thursday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday: VFR. No sig weather.