Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 171410
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1010 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
quiet weather continues for the rest of the week as high pressure
dominates over the north country through to the weekend. High
temperatures look to warm each day with this weekend seeing a return
to the 80s. The next significant chance for rainfall will not likely
be until the start of next week.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
as of 1008 am EDT Tuesday...no changes needed to the forecast
for this afternoon with just a little bit of stratocumulus
residing across the Northeast Kingdom. Did end up lowering
temperatures tonight based on trends from last night which ended
up increasing the coverage of patchy fog across Essex and
Franklin counties tonight in New York. Will need to possibly
consider a frost advisory depending on how the new guidance
comes in shortly.
Previous discussion...a great stretch of late Summer/early Fall
weather continues as a ridge of high pressure dominates the
weather across most of the northeastern US. Currently, with
mostly clear skies over the area many of the valley locations
have reached their crossover temperatures and fog is forming in
the favored valley locations. This fog will last until a bit
after sunrise and then quickly burn off, leading to another
mostly clear and dry day with highs in the upper 60s and some
areas reaching 70.
Northerly will continue tonight, leading to another cool night with
fog again expected in the valleys. A chance for some parts of the
dacks and nek seeing frost/freeze conditions tonight is not out of
the question as well. Look for overnight lows in the 40s with higher
elevations in the 30s.
Wednesday will be more of the same with continued northerly flow,
minimal cloud cover and high temperatures in the upper 60s.
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday/...
as of 332 am EDT Tuesday...for the middle to end of the work week,
surface high pressure over the northeast and a ridge aloft just west
of the County Warning Area will control the north country's weather with a continued
abundance of sunshine during the daylight hours, and clear skies at
night. An increasing south/southwesterly return flow will allow
temps to warm slightly each day with highs Thursday in the low 70s,
and Friday mid 70s. Lows will follow suit in the 30s/40s Wednesday
night with some patchy frost possible, then 40s/50s Thursday night.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 332 am EDT Tuesday...heading into the weekend, the
aforementioned upper ridge will center over the northeast Saturday,
while high pressure strengthens over the southeast. This combination
will continue the warming trend from the previous days with a return
of Summer as highs push into the upper 70s to low 80s for Saturday
and Sunday. On Sunday, we should see some gusty winds across the
region as the pressure gradient increases between high pressure over
the area and an approaching frontal boundary, but the day should be
dry. Chances for rain increase heading into Sunday night and early
next week as low pressure moving over James Bay drags a cold front
through the region, but timing of the frontal passage is still
uncertain with a good 24-hour difference in timing amongst guidance.
Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/...
through 12z Wednesday...some lingering LIFR fog remains at
slk/mpv but should be gone by 13z. Beyond that, expect sky clear and
generally light north winds across the area. Kbtv & kpbg could
see a few gusts around 15 kt in the afternoon. Kslk/kmpv/kmss
could see IFR/LIFR fog again tonight after 06z.
Wednesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig weather.
Saturday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig weather.