Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcar 150526
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
126 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019
the frontal system will move into the Gulf of Maine overnight,
then high pressure will build south of the state on Sunday. A
cold front will cross the region Sunday night followed by
Canadian high pressure Monday through Friday.
Near term /through Sunday/...
130 am update:
the bulk of the shower activity has moved E and offshore. There
is still some scattered showers across the northern border and
across northern Piscataquis County. This was picked up well by
the rap and hrrr. The 00z run of the GFS was in line as well
W/the placement. Used a blend of this guidance set to show
latest shower activity pulling eastward across northern Maine
through the early morning hrs and ending by daybreak. The rest
of the County Warning Area will see mainly cloudy skies. Kept the mention of fog
in the forecast as the latest infrared satl imagery showed some breaks
setting up, especially across the Maine central Highland up
into Central Aroostook County. Hrly temps were adjusted to fit
the latest obs.
a frontal system over Maine at the start of the period will
move into the coastal waters early in the period. Higher
pressure will build into the area early tomorrow morning. An
upper level trough will move into SW Maine by the end of the
period. Not as cold tonight with temperatures generally in the
mid 40s to low 50s inland mid 50s on the coast. Near normal
Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/Gem to smooth out the minor
differences in the models.
Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
mainly dry and cool thru this portion of the forecast.
Mid lvl S/WV trofs will initially be tracking ewrd both north and S
of our forecast area beginning sun ngt, which will keep cld cvr and slgt
chc shwr pops for our rgn this pd. Otherwise, cont'd northwest flow Alf
behind these S/wvs will keep the rgn relatively cool and dry Mon
thru Tue. Typical SC cld cvr across the north and a northwest sfc wind
breeze across all of the rgn will not allow much in the way of
radiational cooling both sun ngt or Mon ngt.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
continued dry with a warming trend late in the long term.
Blended longer range model guidance shows Tue and Wed to cont
ptly cldy north/mtns and msly clr cntrl/downeast with cool temps as
cont'd north to northwest flow Alf conts. Better potential of radiational
cooling ovr the rgn will first occur Tue ngt as sfc hi pres
finally begins cresting ovr the forecast area by late ngt, allowing for lgt
winds with mclr skies and the potential of Vly frost across the
N, spcly ovr the northwest.
Building upper ridging will then allow for a slow wrmg trend of
day tm high temps beginning on Thu, contg til Sat. There will
still be good radiational cooling Wed ngt with somewhat lesser
late ngt frost potential, with milder ovrngt lows Thu and Fri
ngts progressively precluding nrn Vly frost potential these
ngts. A weak S/WV crossing west to east ovr cntrl and ern qb late Fri
into Fri ngt briefly flattening the upper ridge could result in
some cldnss across the N, but little if any shwr potential.
Aviation /05z Sunday through Thursday/...
tonight...IFR to low end MVFR conditions are expected overnight
with local LIFR possible in patchy fog and low ceilings. Conditions
will improve to VFR Sun morning.
Short to long term: sun ngt thru Thu: mainly VFR all taf sites
xcpt ocnl MVFR SC clgs nrn taf sites sun ngt thru Tue, spcly
kfve. Lgt winds.
near term: update...Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to
expire as winds and seas have dropped off over the last 3 hrs.
Sustained winds are around 15 kt W/seas down to around 4 ft.
Winds and and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria into Sunday.
Short to long term: no hdlns anticipated attm thru these ptns of
the fcst, with fcst WV hts based on a blend of ww3/nwps WV
guidance. Wvs will be comprised of two main spectral groups durg
this tm; a 5-7 sec offshore southeast propagating short fetch group
and a north-northwest propagating 10-12 sec open Atlc swell group.
there have not been any 70 degree days this September in
Caribou, Maine. On average (1981-2010 averages) there are 9 days
with a high of 70 or warmer each September. 1954 holds the
record for the fewest 70 degree days during the month of
September with 2. It is likely that highs will be in the 70s in
Caribou late this weekend into at the least the start of next