Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 200146
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
946 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
high pressure from New England to the mid-Atlantic will remain
in control of our weather as it drifts slowly south into the
mid-Atlantic region overnight through Saturday. The high will
weaken Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Near term /through Friday night/...
forecast remains on track at this time.
high pressure from New England to the mid- Atlantic will
continue to drift slowly south into the mid- Atlantic region
overnight through Saturday. Aloft, an upper ridge across the
region will remain largely in place through the near term. For
the overnight will continue with clear/mostly clear skies.
Moisture however will be on the increase in the southerly return
flow on the back side of the surface high. Given the increasing
moisture, will have patchy fog developing west towards morning.
For Friday expect the added moisture will yield more of a
partly cloudy day west and central with more sun east. Models do
show some limited cape but for now will remain with a dry
forecast given the upper ridge in place. Friday night moisture
and instability continue to build west of the area. The best
forcing will also remain west of the area with an upper trough
digging into the northern and Central Plains so, for now, will
leave Friday night dry as well. Will go above guidance temps for
Friday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
a warm weekend is in store as a large ridge remains focused over the
eastern Continental U.S.. return flow and dry conditions expected Saturday
through most of the day on Sunday. Some of the models are hinting at
isolated showers and storms on Saturday across the area, with a bit
of low level moisture/instability pooling and the nose of a weak low
level jet briefly focused across the area. Currently thinking that
the moisture is a little overdone, so will ride with a dry forecast
at this point. A trough will dig southeast into the Great Lakes late
Sunday and Sunday night, forcing a cold front east into the area.
Shower/thunderstorms chances will increase across the area generally
Sunday night, with high chance/likely pops in the forecast. Went
warmer with highs on Saturday and Sunday, closer to the ec MOS
numbers which has been verifying well in recent warm air advection
regimes. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s, with some areas
reaching the upper 80s. Some lower relative humidity values on Sunday along with
gustier winds in the 25-30 mph range could create some elevated fire
danger, especially for drier Grasslands. No products are in effect
for this at the moment, but will need watching over the next 48
hours, especially if better mixing brings relative humidity values down to 30% or
lower on Sunday.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
a less amplified weather pattern will result in near normal
temperatures for next week. The cold front will push east of the
area Monday with lingering showers ending Monday night. High
pressure will build east across the area Monday night through
Wednesday, with dry conditions expected. The next chance for
precipitation across the region will be Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday as weak low pressure moves into the region.
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR will continue over the region as high pressure extends back
into the Ohio Valley. Main concern for the taf period will be
increasing clouds on Friday afternoon as some better moisture
advects into the region. Will maintain a similar forecast with a
sct/bkn deck around 4-5 kft during the afternoon hours becoming
more few/sct in nature later in the day. Winds through the
period will be generally light with a southerly flow more
favored on Friday afternoon as high pressure drifts south.
Outlook...non-VFR possible in patchy fog Saturday morning and
in showers/thunderstorms Sunday through Monday.
quiet conditions expected on the lake through Sunday as high
pressure east of the region brings southerly winds over the lake.
Winds will increase a bit on Sunday ahead of a cold front, with
southwest 15-20 kts expected. The cold front will move across the
lake Sunday night, with winds becoming westerly Monday. Winds will
remain less than 10 kts over the lake through Tuesday as high
pressure builds east across the region.