Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 160123
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
923 PM EDT sun Sep 15 2019
a weak cold front will sink south through the region late
tonight and Monday. High pressure will return to the area
Monday night through the rest of the week. Another cold front
will move into the region by the weekend.
Near term /through Monday night/...
no changes with this mid evening update. A few observation sites
coming in with trace and 0.01 inch this evening. Weak system
with limited moisture will be in the vicinity through Monday
afternoon. But its presence will necessitate slight
chance/chance of a shower/sprinkle wording. Somewhat better
chances for measurable precip will accompany the weak surface
front that will slip through Monday.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Monday with gradual clearing
from west to east late in the afternoon and tomorrow night.
Temperatures will be slightly milder tonight with the cloud
cover and light southerly winds. Seasonable temperatures are
expected through Monday night.
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
northeast to easterly flow expected Tuesday and Wednesday with high
pressure over Quebec. Some residual cloud cover may linger for the
first part of Tuesday, mainly inland, before clearing as drier air
continues to advect into the region. Slightly cooler air behind
monday's cold front will result in temperatures near seasonal
normals on Tuesday, before warming a degree or two for
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
upper level ridge axis shifts east of the area on Thursday, with
surface high pressure shifting off the New England coast. Southerly
flow develops on the back side of the high on Thursday with warm
advection developing. Temperatures will climb back above normal into
the 80s area wide for the later half of the week and may approach 90
in some portions of north central or north west Ohio as a persistent
upper level ridge sets up over the eastern United States.
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
VFR through much of the night, but weak cold front will be
nearing toward morning. Focus will be on the arrival of MVFR
ceilings and the wind shift to the north with the frontal
passage in the tafs. Tweaked the arrival of MVFR ceilings with
this set of tafs. A light shower/sprinkle is possible, but
chances are low and will have minimal impact therefore only
mentioned a vcsh for eri. Moisture is limited with this system,
but a layer of MVFR ceilings will be around for a time Monday.
Improvement may take place from north to south late in the day,
but likely not reach inland locations prior to 00z Tuesday.
Outlook...non-VFR possible Monday night into early Tuesday.
a cold front will settle south across Lake Erie on Monday with
northeast winds of 10-20 knots developing behind the front Monday
night into Tuesday. Choppy marine conditions can be expected with
waves of 2 to 4 feet and may briefly approach small craft criteria.
Rises can also be expected to water levels on the west end of Lake
Erie given the persistent NE flow. Water levels may approach flood
stage but at this time are not expected to surpass flood levels.
Easterly flow will continue Wednesday then shift around to the south
on Thursday as high pressure shifts from eastern Canada off the New