Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 151049
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
649 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019
high pressure will continue to build northeast through the Ohio
Valley today. A weak cold front will sink south through the
region late tonight through Monday, with high pressure
returning to the area Monday night through the rest of the week.
Near term /through Monday/...
surface high pressure will continue to build northeast through
the Ohio Valley today, as a warm front lifts from northern in
northeast to Lake Erie this morning. An area of rain showers
with some isolated thunderstorms continues to drift east towards
northwest OH, on the nose of potent 700mb speed Max. Model
guidance continues to indicate that this activity will diminish
over the next few hours, but went ahead and added some more
slight chance pops to the I-75 corridor for a few hours this
morning. A mid/upper shortwave, currently noted on west/v imagery
entering northern lower mi, will race southeast through the
Great Lakes today. This will bring a threat for rain showers
this afternoon, mainly north of the area. However, the focus of
the low level speed Max/low level forcing could sneak into northwest PA
for a period of time as the wave passes, so will opt for chance
pops at this point despite a narrow corridor of 850mb passing
ahead of the wave. A secondary mid level vort Max over Illinois will
drift east southeast through in into western Ohio this afternoon,
however this will generally be in a weakening state. Most of the
precip activity associated with this should be south and west
of the area, but have slight chance pops increasing after 00z in
the western part of the area, especially as a secondary surface
low and attendant cold front drift east into the region towards
06z. Will keep slight chance pops in the forecast through the
overnight as the front settles south into the area, with a
decent increase in the low level jet, with some mid level jet
support through the area through the night. Will also mention a
few hours of slight chance thunder with the low level jet
advecting some modest MUCAPE northeast into the western part of
the forecast area. The front will push southeast of the area on
Monday as the low moves east of the area and fills. Some early
slight chance/low chance pops across the northeast part of the
area will diminish through the afternoon as dry conditions
prevail with high pressure and some drier air moving into the
region. Have again went above most guidance for highs today and
Monday, closer to but slight above ecmos numbers, which have
been verifying fairly well relative to met/mav.
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...
high pressure ridges southward into the region Monday night. This
high will shift to New England by Tuesday night and remain there
into Wednesday night. The region will be dry with only a shift in
wind direction from northeast on Tuesday to southeast Wednesday
night. Temperatures will be slightly above seasonal averages.
Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...
surface high pressure will remain to the east and southeast of the
area through the long term period. This occurring as an upper level
ridge dominates. So expect dry conditions to continue. Temperatures
will remain above seasonal averages with highs well into the
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure
builds northeast across the region. Some mid level clouds will
move east across the area this morning associated with a
weakening area of shower and isolated thunderstorms and rain. There is an outside
shot of this rain showers/thunderstorms and rain impacting ktol/kfdy near the beginning of
the period, but low enough to preclude a taf mention. A cold
front will sink south into the terminals towards the end of the
period. Some lower VFR ceilings expected, and possible shra,
however reductions below VFR will likely hold off until just
after the period. Winds will increase out of the southwest
today, but will generally be around 10 kts or less.
Outlook...non-VFR possible early Monday.
weakening low pressure will track across the central Great Lakes
today with its cold front settling across the region early Monday.
Expect to see south to southwest winds until the cold front passes
early on Monday. Winds will become northeast on Monday with a brief
increase in wind speeds to around 15 knots. The easterly winds will
persist but expected to decrease by Monday night as high pressure
sits over the New England states into Wednesday night.