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000 
FXUS61 KCTP 231130
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
730 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and much less humid air will arrive today. A trough aloft
will slowly swing across the state this week with a surface 
high pressure system following doggedly after. Warmer and more 
muggy air will be returning later in the week and for the 
weekend as the high pressure moves off the east coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No tweaks for now. Messy mix of clouds over the NW being
revealed as the high clouds slide to the east. Not a very dry
day in store for the far SErn zones. Still damp with occasional
light rain thru all the morning and perhaps into the aftn.

Prev...
Minor sfc wave along the front to our east is slowing the exit 
of light rain. Rain showers will linger on into the daylight 
hours in the SE. But, just spotty hundreths are expected during
the day. Clouds will be tough to clear away over much of the 
CWA before mid-morning. They should decrease from west to east,
though. 

Instability in the cooler air will likely generate isold SHRA as
the sun breaks through. Won't go so far as to put in a mention 
of TS yet. These showers will be most prevalent over the 
Alleghenies where cooler air aloft, residual sfc moisture, and 
elevation/topography play a part in making some small, fast- 
moving showers. Dewpoint this aftn will drop to around 50F NW 
hilltops, and 60F SE valleys. Maxes today will be about 10-15F 
cooler than Monday over the SErn half of the area. Expect 70s to
be widespread, and some of the very highest elevations in the 
Laurels may stay below 70F all day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A rather deep (seasonably-adjusted) upper level trough will be
swinging across the state through Thursday. A spotty SHRA is
again poss Wed aftn, but covg will be less than 20 pct. The high
pressure center remains well to our west for much of the week. 
There will be a bit better chc for an organized bunch of 
showers on Thurs aftn in the north as a backdoor front tries to
push in from NY. This is only worth a 20-30 PoP along the 
border, and nothing along and S of I-80. Maxes and mins will be 
5 or so degs below normal on Wed, but very near normal on 
Thurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Typical summertime heat/humidity should make a return by the 
weekend with an increasing risk of PM thunderstorms into early
next week. Temperatures will trend higher to above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TAFS sent.

As of 715 AM, most of the rain east of our area now.

Some patchy rain at times today, mainly east and south
of MDT.

Overall, improving conditions today.

Looking at mainly dry weather after today. There could
be a brief shower on Wed, mainly across the north and west.

.Outlook...

Wed-Sat...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo

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