Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 230616
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
216 am EDT Mon Sep 23 2019
a cold front will bring a chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms to the area today. Behind this front look for
cooler and drier conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday with just
a few showers across the northeast portions of the area.
Another cold front will bring a chance of showers on Thursday
followed by another weather system on Saturday.
Near term /through today/...
mid and high clouds approaching western PA early this morning.
Temperatures will begin to steady out or even rise as
radiational cooling wanes. This is all ahead of a cold front
which will bring a chance of showers or a few thunderstorms
later this morning and this afternoon. Stability profiles not
too impressive for organized convection and hrrr now within
today timeframe concurs with just a few embedded stronger
convective cells within the line of showers. With more cloud
cover and precipitation high temperatures today will be several
degrees cooler then on Sunday.
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Tuesday/...
any showers will end through the evening hours with clearing
overnight and temperatures much cooler then last couple nights,
though still above average for this late in September. Likewise
on Tuesday look for cooler weather then previous days but still
warmer then average. Cannot rule out a few light showers across
the northern tier and higher elevations either.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
with high pressure building Tuesday night look for better
conditions for radiational cooler. The nice weather continues on
Wednesday with sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s
everywhere. Models show another reinforcing shortwave frontal
system will move across the area on Thursday. Will cover this
with chance pops but quantitative precipitation forecast not impressive at all. This will help
return temperatures closer to average for Thursday and Friday.
A stronger weather system will bring a better chance for showers
on Saturday possibly lasting into Sunday for perhaps an
unsettled weekend of weather ahead.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
valley fog with local restrictions remain possible across the
eastern airfields early this morning. Low level wind shear is likely across the
northwest airspace as southwest low level jet increases ahead of cold
front pushing east from the Ohio Valley. Frontal showers and
maybe a few T-storms are likely as the front moves across the
airspace later today. Upsloping westerly flow will likely yield
low MVFR cigs across parts of the western airspace, with a
brief period of IFR cigs even possible on the higher ridgetops.
Downsloping flow east of the mountains should result in
predominantly VFR conditions all day across the central and
eastern airspace. Low cigs may persist over the western taf
sites into Tuesday morning.
Tue...am MVFR cigs possible wrn 1/3. Spotty -shra nrn tier.
Wed...am fog northern valleys bcmg VFR.
Thu...cold front with local restrictions in showers and
Fri...am valley fog possible.
autumn officially begins at 3:50 a.M. EDT.