Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 150555
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
155 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019
a cold front will move off the mid Atlantic coast overnight.
High pressure will build in and usher in several days of dry
weather with temperatures at or above normal.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
a very weak front continues to move slowly through central PA.
The wind at unv has finally gone westerly and the dewpoint is
down to 61. Drier air will continue to slowly work eastward
overnight. With skies expected to become clear to scattered in
most areas by the wee hours of Sunday, and after a day that saw
many areas having some rain, that will lead to valley fog
forming as the night progresses.
Mins will stay in the 60s southeast but get close to 50f over the
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Monday/...
after the fog Burns away (slowly) on Sunday, it should be a
much brighter, milder day. We could even top normal maxes by 5
degs in many places.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
a weakening cold front will cross the area on Monday, bringing
little more than low chance pops. It will be a warm day ahead
of the front, with high temperatures approaching 10 degrees
above normal across southern PA.
After that, a sprawling area of high pressure will nose down
from New England and dominate our weather for the remainder of
the week. This should keep central PA generally dry through the
week. After a brief cool down behind the departing cold front,
temperatures should slowly begin to moderate later in the week.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
LIFR cig at ipt now and should remain there all night. Fog is
forming/spreading throughout all the valleys of central PA. We
should see the fog continue to expand, with most terminals
dipping to IFR by morning. Jst and bfd are the least likely
places to see IFR, so have only mentioned it in tempo groups
The fog is expected to burn off by 14z with mostly clear skies
expected Sunday and light winds. A couple of very light showers
will move into wrn New York late today, and one or two of them could
dip into bfd before sunset and during the evening. But, it
should remain VFR, so have only mentioned vcsh.
A cold front with meager moisture will cross the area on Monday,
and will make additional iso/sct shra, but mostly over the nrn
terminals. MVFR clouds will cover a good portion of the area on
Mon, but IFR is unlikely.
Tue-Thu...am valley fog north. Otherwise VFR.