Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 150330
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1030 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019
high pressure will move east of the state bringing milder
temperatures today and Friday. A dry cold front will push
through the area Friday night bringing a return to colder
temperatures for the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
split upper trof pattern over the eastern Continental U.S. With high clouds
streaming over the southern half of central PA late this evening
from southern stream trof axis extending from srn Illinois/in to the
arklatex. Despite the high couds, fair weather will persist
overnight as high pressure noses in from the west. Lows will
average several degrees colder than normal, generally a few deg
either side of 25.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/...
most of the area will see pleasant but cool weather on Friday.
Far northwestern areas could see some clouds and a flurry sneak in off
Lake Erie, but most of the County Warning Area will enjoy a bright day.
Highs will range from the mid 30s along the New York border to around
50 along the Mason-Dixon line.
Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
the trend of below average temperatures and relatively calm
weather will continue through the weekend. Max/min temperature
departures 10 to 20 degrees below normal are forecast on
Saturday, followed by a gradual warming trend toward mid to late
November climate normals through the middle of next week.
A strong low pressure system is currently expected to remain
off the Atlantic coast Sunday night into Monday. The latest
model data suggests that upstream energy within the amplifying
eastern trough pattern could invigorate an area of precipitation
over the area on Monday. Marginal thermal profiles may be cold
enough to support rain/wet snow mix at higher elevations.
Another low is likely to develop off the East Coast by the
middle of next week and is not expected to impact cpa at this
time. However, the sufficiently cold cyclonic flow pattern
should trigger periods of lake effect/upslope snow showers next
Aviation /04z Friday through Tuesday/...
some MVFR ceilings could creep into the far northwest for a time
Friday, but generally VFR conditions will continuing over the
remainder of the region.
The wind will favor light and variable.
Fri...perhaps a snow shower and brief restrictions at kbfd, but
otherwise mostly VFR.
Sat-Tue...no sig wx.