Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 141026
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
526 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019
high pressure will move east of the state bringing milder
temperatures today and Friday. A dry cold front will push
through the area Friday night bringing a return to colder
temperatures for the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
mid and upper level warm advection clouds over the County Warning Area this
morning as surface high pressure moves east. Added flurries to
the forecast over northwest zones for next few hours per upstream radar
and observations. Clouds will thin out this morning with a
mostly sunny afternoon and milder temperatures as cold air mass
from the past few days retreats.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
continued quiet weather through this period with area between
weather systems. Will see pleasant but cool weather on Friday
after cold morning with radiational cooling.
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
surface high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and
northeast on Saturday providing a dry but chilly day with Max
temps about 10 degrees below normal. Keeping an eye on a strong
area of low pressure expected to form off the southeast coast.
High pressure mentioned above should keep the low offshore, but
a slight westward deviation in the track could bring precip
into southeast PA later Sunday or Monday. Will continue the generally
dry forecast for now. Temps look to remain below- normal Sunday,
then moderate Monday and Tuesday closer seasonal averages.
Aviation /10z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions this morning will be continuing through the day
across practically the entire region.
The lone exception will be in vicinity of kbfd where an area of weak low
to mid level warm advection from the southwest was helping to
lower cloud bases to under 3000 ft agl, with periods of 2-4sm
in -shsn expected at kbfd between about 11-14z.
South to southeast winds of 6-9kts early today will become
south-southwesterly by late this morning and increase to 8-10kt
with gusts into the mid teens.
Fri...perhaps a snow shower and brief restrictions at kbfd, but
otherwise mostly VFR.