Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 230119
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
919 PM EDT sun Sep 22 2019
an area of high pressure centered off the mid Atlantic coast
will drift east and allow a cold front to approach Pennsylvania
from the Ohio Valley. The front will be followed by a brief cool
down Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by another cold front for
Thursday and Friday.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
quiet night for the County Warning Area ahead of tomorrows weather system. Warm
air aloft with increasing mid and high level moisture will limit
radiational cooling keeping conditions mild and humid
Short term /6 am Monday morning through 6 PM Monday/...
models agree in pushing a cold front through the region
Monday/Monday evening. This system will likely be accompanied by
a round of mainly light showers. Models create very little
instability, suggesting we will be rather cloudy (cooler) ahead
of the front. Basin average quantitative precipitation forecast will be generally a tenth of an
inch or less, though scattered amounts of around 0.25 of an
inch are likely, especially across the southeast half of PA where a few
thunderstorms could occur.
Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
the front will move through the region rather quickly with a
return to fair and slightly warmer than seasonable weather
Tue/Wed. High pressure should build southeast from the grt lks
during the middle of the upcoming week, followed by a weak cold
front Thursday that will generate only very light quantitative precipitation forecast and
showers that will be isolated to scattered in coverage.
Aviation /01z Monday through Friday/...
high pressure off of the mid Atlantic coast will ensure VFR
conditions and light wind across most of central PA tonight.
However, calm winds could result in patchy late night valley fog
across the Susquehanna valley. Odds of IFR conditions at
kipt/kmdt/klns early Monday morning is less than 25 pct but not
zero. Another area of concern will be the potential of low level wind shear
across the northern tier of the state late tonight, the result
of increasing southwest winds aloft and light southerly winds at
A cold front will push southeast across the region Monday,
accompanied by a round of showers in most places. Upsloping
westerly flow will likely yield low MVFR cigs across the
Allegheny plateau Monday, with a brief period of IFR cigs even
possible on the higher ridgetops. Downsloping flow east of the
mountains should result in predominantly VFR conditions all day
across the southeast airspace.
Tue...am MVFR cigs possible wrn 1/3.
Wed...patchy am fog northern valleys.
Thu...cold front with local restrictions in showers and possible
Friday...no sig wx.
autumn officially arrives at 3:50 a.M. EDT, on Monday, sept. 23.