Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 131717
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1217 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019
high pressure will slide east from the Ohio Valley today. As
the high drifts off the mid Atlantic coast tonight it will
create a south to southwest flow of air that will help bring
slowly moderating temperatures Thursday and Friday
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
1032 mb sfc high centered over the lower Ohio Valley will
maintain the northwest flow of unseasonably cold air into the region
Satellite shows cloud streamers continuing off Lake Erie, and
radar and surface observations indicate that little more than
some light snow showers or flurries are falling out of the
Subsidence inversion will continue to lower throughout the day
which will only act to help diminish the snow shower activity.
Expect a veil of cirrus to stream southeast from the upper Midwest and
gr lakes region and overspread the area during the afternoon,
as we see the cold advection switch to warm ahead of the
shortwave over the plains.
High temps today will only be in the mid to upper 20s across
much of the higher terrain across northern and western PA,to the
low and middle 30s elsewhere.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
short wave will pass north of the area tonight acting to
increase the warm air advection. However, with upper support
well to the north, no precipitation is expected.
This upper trough is followed by a weak cold front for late
Thursday and early Friday which will have little effect on the
weather as the weakening front has little cold air behind.
Overall result will result in the area being under a west-northwest flow
aloft and surface high pressure nosing in from the Ohio Valley.
So, expect dry conditions and near normal temperatures at the
end of the week.
The south to southwest flow of air will help warm temperatures
into the mid and upper 30s across the north, and low to mid 40s
in the valleys of southern PA.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
surface high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and
northeast on Saturday providing a dry but chilly day with Max
temps about 10 degrees below normal. Keeping an eye on a strong
area of low pressure expected to form off the southeast coast.
High pressure mentioned above should keep the low offshore, but
a slight westward deviation in the track could bring precip
into southeast PA later Sunday or Monday. Will continue the generally
dry forecast for now. Temps look to remain below- normal Sunday,
then moderate Monday and Tuesday closer seasonal averages.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
clouds streaming off Lake Erie continue to affect the northwestern
flying area with a finger of MVFR clouds extending down to unv.
Mainly MVFR conditions in these lake bands will gradually
improve later today as the clouds start to erode under a
developing SW flow. West winds at 5-10 mph will shift to the
south late and become light.
VFR conditions will continue with quiet weather tonight through
Fri...perhaps a snow shower and brief restrictions at kbfd, but
otherwise mostly VFR.