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fxus61 kctp 202319 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
719 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

anomalous upper level ridging will build east into the region
through the weekend. A cold front will likely push across the
area Monday, followed by high pressure building in from the
Great Lakes by the middle of next week.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
upper level shortwave over the eastern grt lks will push
southeast tonight, accompanied by nothing more than a bit of
cirrus. Can't completely rule out a shower around dawn over the
Laurel Highlands, where higher pwats will arrive ahead of

Mostly clear skies and a calm wind should promote patchy late
night valley fog across central and northern PA. Mins won't be
as chilly as recent nights given return flow aloft, but should
range through the 50s in most places. A few upper 40s may pop up
in sheltered northern locations.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through 6 PM Saturday/...
no changes to the going forecast on Saturday as the strong
surface high slips southeast of the region. A return southwest
flow of warmer air will develop accompanied by partly to mostly
sunny conditions. Max temperature departures of +10-15 degrees
are expected Sat with peak readings in the mid to upper 80s in
the southeast. Max temperatures would have to reach or rise above 90f
to challenge daily records in most locations.

Shortwave trough flattening the upper ridge should produce
enough marginal instability to keep slight shower chances going
over mainly the western mountains. Am not expecting eastern half
of central PA to see any shower activity.


Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
heights and temps aloft will rise again Sat night and Sunday,
leading to a fair conditions at night and mostly sunny and a
pleasantly warm early autumn day with temps well into the 70s
across the northern and western mtns, and at least the mid 80s
in the southeast zones.

The models are coming into agreement on the tracking of a cold
front that will move through the area Monday. This system will
likely be accompanied by a round of generally light showers. It
should move through the region quickly with a return to fair
and slightly warmer than seasonable weather Tue/Wed. High
pressure should build southeast from the grt lks mid next week.


Aviation /23z Friday through Wednesday/...
for the 00z tafs, looking at mainly clear skies with VFR

I did edge fog off some, especially across the northwest.
This based on return flow from the southwest.

Most likely area to see fog is ipt.

Weighted fcst some to what occurred last night.

A spotty/isolated shower is possible mainly across the western
1/2 of the airspace Saturday PM. There is a better chance for
showers/storms Monday PM, ahead of an approaching cold front.


Sun...mainly dry with VFR conditions.

Mon...sct showers/isold T-storms as a cold front crosses the

Tue...becoming VFR.

Wed...VFR conditions.


autumn officially arrives at 3:50 a.M. EDT, on Monday, sept. 23.


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...devoir/Fitzgerald

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