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fxus63 kddc 160827 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
327 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

..updated short term and long term sections...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 326 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Numerous showers and thunderstorms were ongoing as of 0745 UTC
across portions of southwest and south central Kansas near the
Oklahoma border. These storms were fairly slow-moving, producing
torrential rainfall, especially across Seward County in and around
the Liberal area. The overall coverage of these thunderstorms is
expected to slowly decrease with continued boundary layer
decoupling, although abundant low and mid level moisture in vicinity
of low amplitude short-wave trough will keep at least scattered
thunderstorms going through daybreak and even beyond, deeper into
the morning hours. We will maintain highest pops along the Oklahoma
border as a result, with even 20-30 pops in the afternoon, closer to
the upper level disturbance. This disturbance will shift slowly east
across Oklahoma and southern Kansas by afternoon, however
convectively-induced vorticity maxima will likely complicate
matters, which numerical prediction really struggles with when it
comes to convectively-generated vorts.

An abundance of mid and high level convective cloud debris should
slowly give way to more sun by afternoon, but that is a low
confidence forecast. Regardless, cooler temperatures will probably
be found along the Oklahoma border (highs in the upper 70s to around
80) with warmer highs up north. Tonight and Monday are looking
fairly quiet in between convective systems. Shortwave ridging behind
this current system will result in subsidence and a generally stable
atmosphere. Upslope winds will redevelop late Monday, setting the
stage for another round of convective weather just after this short
term period.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 326 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

As mentioned in the short term discussion above, the next convective
weather event will be Monday night as one or two clusters of
thunderstorms develop across the High Plains of eastern Colorado and
move east along the low level moist axis, fed by southeasterly
upslope low level winds. The severe weather threat does not appear
to be all that high, given the mid level winds will only be in the
10 to 20 knot range. This will also result in slower storm motion,
such that any storms should hold off entering western Kansas until
mid to late evening Monday. Another low amplitude trough axis will
become centered across the Central Plains Tuesday with a weak
surface low in place. This would argue for a better opportunity for
severe weather and heavy rain late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Advancing toward the latter half of the upcoming work week,
indications are that a stronger upper level jet will be in play
across the western Continental U.S. With a trough axis centered somewhere
across the west or rockies. This would suggest a stronger southwest
flow pattern for western Kansas, stronger downslope momentum, thus
hotter temperatures. By end of week in this pattern, the bulk of
convective weather should shift off toward the northern plains, but
there is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to how this pattern
will affect western Kansas weather toward the end of the week into
the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1226 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

The main challenge in the aviation forecast will be how far north
and coherent convection will get through the overnight hours into
very early Sunday morning. We will go with thunderstorms in the vicinity at lbl for the
initial few hours of this taf period and ddc and gck for 08-12z
time frame. Outside of any shower/thunderstorm activity, aviation
weather conditions will remain VFR with light winds less than 10


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 83 60 82 62 / 20 20 10 60
gck 81 57 83 59 / 20 10 20 60
eha 78 58 81 57 / 40 20 40 50
lbl 79 58 83 59 / 30 20 20 50
hys 84 61 82 62 / 10 10 0 70
p28 84 63 84 64 / 30 20 0 40


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...

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