Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kddc 072240 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
440 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

..updated aviation section...

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 100 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

A quiet night is on tap across SW Kansas. Lee troughing will continue
through the rest of the afternoon with breezy southerly winds continuing.
Meanwhile, westerly flow aloft will continue to increase through the
overnight period. This will help to move the trof axis farther east
through the morning hours. Winds will become light westerly to northwesterly
in the wake of the sfc boundary. Otherwise, the weather will be mainly
tranquil with some increasing high clouds. For Sunday, there is a small
concern for some patchy fog across the southeastern counties during
the early to mid morning hours. Have patchy fog in the grids for Comanche,
Barber and a small portion of Pratt County. This fog should erode by
mid morning. With the weak downslope winds behind the trof continuing,
we should see highs above normal. Lower 60s for Elkhart to upper 50s
for Hays and Medicine Lodge. As a jet axis extends over Kansas by tomorrow
night, high clouds are likely to prevail. Lastly, moderate afternoon
relative humidities will keep any fire weather concerns on the low

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 100 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Attention then turns to Monday. All the jet dynamics mentioned above
are associated with a long amplitude trof that will finally move across
the Central Plains on Monday. This feature will usher in the passage
of a cold front across the greater region. Fairly strong cold air advection behind
the front is expected with highs decreasing down to the upper 30s to
mid 40s Monday. Breezy northerly winds are also expected in the wake
of the front. If there is any chance of very light snow and/or flurries,
it would be across central Kansas in association with some low to mid
level frontogenesis. Amounts would be a dusting, if that across the
i70 corridor. Other than that, this front will be mainly dry with just
cooler temperatures and blustery northerly winds as the main impacts.
High pressure will prevail on Tuesday. Weak warm air advection and downsloping resumes
midweek with moderating temperatures. Precipitation chances continue
to look bleak for the remaining of the extended period.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 439 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with increasing mid
to upper level cloudiness tomorrow afternoon. Winds will continue
to decrease in intensity this evening with light and variable
conditions overnight. Winds will generally be from the north
tomorrow at less than 12 knots.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 31 58 29 41 / 0 0 0 10
gck 27 59 28 40 / 0 0 0 0
eha 36 62 31 42 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 33 62 30 42 / 0 0 0 0
hys 31 57 27 37 / 0 0 10 20
p28 33 58 33 44 / 0 0 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations