Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kddc 182342
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
542 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019
..updated for aviation discussion...
Short term...(this afternoon through tuesday)
issued at 1041 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019
Windy conditions this afternoon with gusts up to 30-35 mph this
afternoon due to strong daytime heating with the downsloping low
level flow. Afternoon high temperatures will swell towards the
upper 60s and around the 70 degree mark. Winds will diminish after
sunset due to radiational cooling under clear skies overnight.
Morning low temperatures will drop into the 30s once again as
winds switch around to the south with return flow with the upper
level disturbance over the weekend pushes far enough east. Winds
will increase to 25-30 mph towards late morning as a leeside
trough develops and deepens across eastern Colorado. The south to
southwest flow will allow temperatures to push once again into the
low 70s Tuesday afternoon under mainly clear skies. Winds will
diminish once again after sunset subsiding to 5-10 mph overnight
into Wednesday morning with lows not as cold in the upper 30s to
upper 40s northwest to southeast across the County Warning Area. Changes coming
in the long term forecast with chances for precipitation
Wednesday evening and once again Friday with colder temperatures
in store heading into the weekend.
Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 1127 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019
Changes come to the warm and dry pattern under northwest flow over
the past week or so as a shortwave pushes across the County Warning Area Wednesday
dropping a not as dry cold front through. Temperatures ahead of
the front will still push into the 70s with south winds before
switching out of the north later in the day. Minimal rain chances
for much of the County Warning Area with the greatest pops for eastern counties
from Hays to Medicine Lodge where the greatest moisture influx
looks to be located for central and south central parts of the
state. Up to a quarter inch of rain is possible in these areas
with isolated storms possible, but with limited instability,
likelihood is not too great let alone anything being severe.
Heading into Thursday, colder temperatures can be expected in wake
of the aforementioned cold front with stratus clouds expected
to linger much of the day. Morning lows will be in the 20s and 30s
with afternoon highs only reaching the 40s. Overnight Thursday
will see another round for chances of precipitation with any rain
turning over to snow as temperatures drop into the upper teens and
20s. Not much in the way of quantitative precipitation forecast or accumulation amounts with snow
less than half a inch tops for western counties with anything east
not really see anything in terms of solid precipitation staying
liquid for the most part.
Friday will be another cooler day in the 40s with a warming and
dry trend into the weekend with morning lows mainly in the 20s and
afternoon highs pushing back into the 50s to near 60 for much of
the County Warning Area. Upper level ridging looks to build back across The
Rockies with strong northwest flow aloft for western Kansas
giving way to near to just above average temperatures and below
average precipitation for this time of year. All in all, quiet
long term, with the best chances for widespread precipitation
being for Wednesday and Thursday nights and that even being on the
low side in terms of pops and accumulations.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 540 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019
A surface trough will form in the Lee of The Rockies on Tuesday.
As a result, light winds will become south at 15-20 kts by 15-17z.
VFR conditions can be expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 38 72 46 71 / 0 0 0 40
gck 35 72 40 70 / 0 0 0 40
eha 37 73 46 69 / 0 0 0 30
lbl 34 73 45 72 / 0 0 0 30
hys 35 70 44 67 / 0 0 0 40
p28 39 70 48 69 / 0 0 0 40