Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kddc 231541 
afdddc

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1041 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

..updated aviation...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 110 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Main focus of the short term will be a line of thunderstorms
expected to develop in eastern Colorado and roll through western
Kansas late this afternoon and this evening.

Throughout today with southeast winds and temperatures approaching
saturation...low clouds will continue to overspread much of the
region to start the morning and then slowly erode from west to
east through the late morning and early afternoon. Southeast winds
will continue to intensify throughout the day providing much of
the area with plenty of moisture as dewpoints are forecast to be
in the upper 60s to low 70s throughout all of western Kansas. With
more sunshine for areas along the Colorado border temperatures
should heat up into the low 90s which will set the stage for a
squall line event for tonight.

A shortwave currently going through Utah will move eastward and go
over the Colorado rockies by late this afternoon. MLCAPE values
in the 2000-3000 j/kg and shear values in the 25-35 kt range will
set the stage for thunderstorm development in eastern Colorado by
around 3-4 PM. These storms will initially start out discrete in
Colorado but quickly evolve into a line by the time they cross
the state line. Main threat with these storms will be straight
line winds, with lesser chances of large hail, and a qlcs tornado
can't be ruled out for areas near the Colorado border. Latest
short term model trends hint at a 25-30 kt 850 mb low level jet as the
storms move eastward with decent cape values continuing after
sunset that the odds of the strong winds and heavy rain making it
to the Highway 283 corridor are increasing. Thunderstorms will
continue to move eastward after midnight and gradually wind down
in intensity as they get to the Highway 281 corridor.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 141 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Another potent shortwave will move in from the northwest from
Saturday afternoon into the evening. NAM/GFS/Euro all have some
slight differences in where the track will be in regards to the
heaviest rainfall but it does look like at least the eastern third
of the forecast area on into central Kansas will have another
decent chance of rain from Saturday night into Sunday morning as
there will still be plentiful moisture for the next shortwave to
work with.

With residual clouds and rainfall throughout the day on Sunday the
temperature forecast has changed as it looks like highs should
stay more in the 80s for the eastern half of the forecast area
with the 90 degree temperatures west of a Garden City to Liberal
line where sunshine and the warm 850 temps will be.

Through much of next week it'll look more like a fall pattern as
upper level winds continue out of the northwest with strong cold
fronts for this time of year moving in through western Kansas.
With these passages of fronts there will be some small chances of
precipitation. In fact by the end of the week we could see highs
only getting into the middle to upper 70s. There could be some
pretty good chances of rain by late week with a strong cold front
(would be moreso by next Friday/saturday).

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1041 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Remaining stratus will dissipate by midday, leaving behind a
cumulus and stratocumulus field through the afternoon. Expect
southeast surface winds to increase at all airports this afternoon,
gusting 25-28 kts. High confidence of a convective complex
impacting aviation operations tonight. Line of storms will be near
the Kansas/Colorado line around 00z Sat, along a gck-lbl line around 03z
Sat, and a ddc-hys line 04-05z Sat. Outflow wind gusts to near
50 kts are the primary threat. Convective tempo groups were
included in all tafs. Consensus of short term models suggests
stratus will fill in immediately behind the exiting convective
complex early Saturday, with IFR cigs most likely at ddc/hys
around 12z Sat.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 86 64 84 64 / 20 70 50 40
gck 87 63 85 62 / 20 60 30 30
eha 91 62 91 62 / 70 40 10 20
lbl 91 62 90 63 / 10 80 20 30
hys 82 66 80 64 / 70 60 50 40
p28 86 69 85 66 / 10 70 40 60

&&

Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations