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fxus63 kddc 051153 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
553 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

..updated aviation section...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 357 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Water vapor loop during the overnight hours revealed a well-formed,
yet compact shortwave trough with mid level swirl centered across
southwest Utah as of 0930z. Unfortunately, this wave will be coming
across The Rockies and High Plains today in a very low amplitude,
quick Manor such that only very light rain showers (and mainly virga
and sprinkles) are forecast across our portion of the world. We will
carry 20-30 pops across the far southwest counties and that is it.
The window for any light measurable precipitation will be late this
afternoon (after 21z) through the mid evening hours. The nam12 model
shows the most quantitative precipitation forecast of any model and we feel this is overdone. The
official quantitative precipitation forecast grids will only be calling for a few hundredths of an
inch at any one location where there are 30 pops. It is possible a
tenth of an inch of rain may fall over an isolated location, but it
is hard to imagine that being any more than an isolated event given
how fast this wave will be moving across late today/this evening
without much of any moisture flux into far western Kansas ahead of
this system.

The main story will be an increase in wind out of the north (as is
usually the case). The grids will carry up to 20-25 mph sustained
winds , particularly along and south of the u50 corridor. As far as
temperatures go, we should see afternoon temperatures top out in the
mid to upper 50s most places with some low 60s possible in the
typically warmer Red Hills region near the Oklahoma border. Friday
will be cooler with some low cloud hanging around in the morning,
but this should scatter out fairly quickly with large scale
subsidence prevailing later in the day as an upper level ridge
approaches. The north winds will drop off substantially early Friday
and perhaps even becoming calm by late in the day/early evening

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 357 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

There isn't a whole lot to discuss in the long term as the entire
time frame Friday night through Thursday of next week will be dry
(at least as of this latest official forecast). The only noteworthy
change made to the baseline nationalblend grids were to increase
winds both Saturday and Monday. We collaborated with weather forecast office neighbors
to use consmos guidance winds for Saturday afternoon and a
compromise between consmos and consall winds for Monday with the
next strong cold front (nationalblend winds appear too weak as
usual, given the low level kinematics forecast by global models). No
other targets of opportunity were identified, as it looks like
temperatures from the nationalblend appear reasonable.

The global models suggest a rather robust Arctic airmass pushing
into the north central Continental U.S. Early-mid next week, but there is
currently very little suggestion that southwest Kansas will receive
anything more than just a glancing shot at this airmass. We will be
watching this closely, though, for if the large scale upper level
gyre will be positioned farther west than currently show, the core
of the Arctic airmass will also be farther west with much less
downslope modification. Right now, though, the large scale jet
pattern forecast does not favor brutal Arctic air down this far
southwest across the High Plains.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 550 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Light winds are forecast through the first half of this taf
period, until a cold front pushes southeast across western Kansas
this evening. Winds will become northerly and increase in speed to
17 to 20 knots sustained, especially lbl, gck, and ddc terminals.
This set of tafs will include vicinity rain showers at lbl during
a 4 hour period this evening. During the last 4 to 6 hours of this
taf period (especially around or after 09z friday) low stratus
clouds will likely build and expand south from western Nebraska
into western Kansas. For now, we will keep out of this taf set,
but the next synoptic taf issuance at 18z will likely need to
introduce some MVFR or IFR conditions in low stratus.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 57 30 44 29 / 10 10 0 0
gck 55 28 43 28 / 20 20 0 0
eha 59 28 47 29 / 30 30 0 0
lbl 58 29 44 28 / 20 30 0 0
hys 56 29 41 28 / 10 10 0 0
p28 60 32 46 28 / 0 10 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...

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