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fxus63 kddc 191017 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
517 am CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

..updated aviation section...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 359 am CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Focus early this morning will be on fog and stratus
possibilities, followed by hot temperatures and elevated heat
indices this afternoon and thunderstorms early evening.

Heat indices are likely to approach if not meet the low 100's to
105 f area for heat indices along the Oklahoma line. The nmm is
not as hot or widespread with output for apparent temperatures in
the advisory range. Collaboration with surrounding forecast area
will likely keep out southwest out of the headlines for now.

The convective allowing models show a could of general regions
for convective development - one moving into NW/west central Kansas
in the evening, another moving in from the panhandles region. The
better opportunity for severe might be with the northern storms as
the area will be moving into better surface moisture pooling near
a warm front, so a wind and isolated hail risk is possible but
those storms may remain out of our forecast area altogether. The
higher probability appears associated with storms in the south
which could also produce gusty winds close to severe limits.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 359 am CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Tuesday morning will present much less of a surface upslope flow
component, as sref visibility probabilities are not showing any
indication for fog redevelopment. Ought to be another hot day
with again elevated heat indices in the far south central Kansas
counties. Relief to he hot air will come mid week as a boundary
drops south and convection chances increase through Thursday. The
nbm drops temperatures into the low 90s already by Wednesday and
into the 80s on Thursday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 513 am CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Cirrus spreading across area may have limited impact on fog
development this morning, as visibilities now falling rapidly.
Weak moist upslope flow should win out with most terminals seeing
some vsby retrictions through at least sunrise, but fog burning
off rapidly this morning.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 100 74 101 70 / 0 10 10 30
gck 100 72 101 67 / 0 10 0 30
eha 102 72 100 67 / 10 10 10 20
lbl 104 72 100 68 / 50 60 10 30
hys 96 72 99 68 / 0 10 10 50
p28 100 75 102 73 / 0 10 0 30


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


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