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fxus63 kddc 230742 
afdddc

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
242 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

..updated short term and long term discussions...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 238 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Warmer temperatures will be returning to southwest Kansas today.
Based on the 24 hour 850mb temperature trend from 00z Monday to
00z Tuesday the highs today are expected to be roughly 5 to near
10 degrees warmer compared to the highs on Sunday.

Tonight a surface boundary over eastern Colorado will deepen as
an upper level trough approaches from the west northwest. A weak
southern branch disturbance is still forecast to approach
southwest Kansas overnight but moisture appears to be somewhat
limited. A few isolated storms still not completely out of the
question overnight given the mid level lapse rates but conditions
do not look as favorable as they did last night at this time.



Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 238 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

An upper low over the far southwestern United States will drop
south into the Baja California area Tuesday as a northern branch
upper level trough moves east across The Rockies and out into the
plains. As this upper level trough crosses the central United
States Tuesday a surface cold front will move into southwest
Kansas. There will be a chance for thunderstorms along this
surface boundary and ahead of the upper level trough crossing
western Kansas. A few of these storms late Tuesday/Tuesday night
may even be strong to marginally severe east of Highway 183 given
the locations of this surface boundary late Tuesday by the GFS and
ECMWF, late day/early Tuesday night mid level lapse rates and 0-6
shear.

Ahead of the cold front moving into southwest Kansas on Tuesday
the highs Monday and Tuesday will range from the mid 80s to near
90 degrees. Behind this frontal boundary on Tuesday the highs may
struggle to warm much higher than the 80 to 85 degree range.

Any cooler air that will be returning to southwest Kansas behind
this frontal boundary on Tuesday will be short lived with warmer
temperatures returning to western Kansas late week as a westerly
downslope flow improves across the central rockies. The upper
level cut off low over Baja California is now forecast to move
east slower and be located a little further south than what
previous runs suggested. This solution would result in keeping the
better opportunity for any precipitation late week being located
along or just south of the Oklahoma border. Further north warm and
dry conditions are expected.



&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1211 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Light southeast winds overnight will become southeast at 10 to 15
knots during the day on Monday as an area of high pressure at the
surface moves from western Kansas at 06z Monday into eastern
Kansas/western Missouri by early Monday night. VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours based on the latest bufr
soundings.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 85 64 90 62 / 0 10 10 10
gck 86 61 89 57 / 0 10 10 0
eha 87 60 88 59 / 10 10 0 0
lbl 87 62 90 60 / 10 10 10 10
hys 83 63 86 59 / 0 20 10 10
p28 84 64 88 67 / 0 10 10 20

&&

Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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