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fxus63 kdlh 231116 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
616 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 426 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Gusty northwest winds gradually diminishing today as low pressure
lifts into Ontario. Scattered rain and snow showers are expected
across much of northeast Minnesota today into tonight. A few
locations in northern Minnesota could see some light accumulation
on grassy surfaces.

Low pressure was centered across central Ontario early this
morning. The low will lift into Hudson Bay as the day progresses.
The upper Mississippi River valley will remain under cyclonic
flow. A shortwave will dig from southern Manitoba into Minnesota.
The combination of diurnal heating, cold air advection and the
shortwave digging in will bring scattered rain and snow showers to
much of northeast Minnesota today. Leaned heavily on cams, but
precipitation chances may need to be expanded further if models
trend toward the latest nmm guidance. Any snow will become all
rain as temperatures warm into the mid 30s and low 40s today. It
will still be a bit breezy out of the northwest, but much lighter
in comparison to the past two days. Sustained wind speeds range
from 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 20 mph.

Cyclonic flow continues through the rest of the short term,
however a mid level ridge will build into the region on Thursday.
The shortwave trough will lift into the central Great Lakes late
tonight, so any rain or snow will taper off. It will be chilly
with low temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s. High pressure
will build in on Thursday. This will gradually decrease cloud
cover and the pressure gradient will relax, which will bring an
end to the gusty winds. Highs on Thursday range from the mid 30s
to the low 40s.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 426 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

An upper trough crosses Friday with little in the way of sensible
weather except increasing wind speeds as dry air aloft should keep
the area precip free. The region will be on the far north side of
cyclogenesis on Saturday with a kink in the jet stream moving a
system through the eastern Great Lakes or up the East Coast
depending on the various model solutions. This same feature is the
Tipping Point to when models begin to diverge wildly and confidence
in the forecast greatly decreases after this.

A long wave trough begins to deepen over the western US Sunday, but
the GFS is progressive with the feature while the Euro lingers it
across the west. Both models show a substantial slug of -15c 850 mb
temps taking a firm hold across the northern plains, therefore any
precip chances that occur will likely be in the form of snow, but
the devil is in the details especially on timing and intensity. One
thing to keep an eye on is the 00z Euro develops a fairly deep low
across the central Great Lakes area which would give potentially
significant snowfall to northern Wisconsin late in the week, but for
now it looks like the greatest impacts will be just to the east of
our forecast area though still well within the margin of error this
far out with poorly aligned models.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 614 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

MVFR ceilings expected through the taf period as wrap around flow
from a departing system advects a solid layer of stratus into the
region. Winds will be gusty, but should slowly dampen through the


issued at 426 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Winds and waves slowly decreasing as the pressure gradient relaxes
as high pressure slowly builds, but small craft criteria winds and
waves will be prevalent this morning. Beginning this afternoon winds
and waves should remain below small craft criteria until Friday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 39 29 38 26 / 20 20 0 0
inl 37 28 38 25 / 30 40 0 0
brd 40 29 40 27 / 0 10 0 0
hyr 41 30 40 25 / 10 10 0 0
asx 42 32 41 27 / 20 10 0 0


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for lsz121-

Small Craft Advisory until 10 am CDT this morning for lsz142>145.



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