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fxus63 kdvn 162347 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities Iowa Illinois
647 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

..00z aviation update...

issued at 240 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

18z surface data has a frontal boundary running from northern
Indiana into northeast Missouri and then across western Iowa. Dew
points were in the 40s and 50s from the Great Lakes into the
northern plains. Dew points in the 60s and 70s ran from the Ohio
Valley into the Central Plains on south to the Gulf Coast.


Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 240 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Warm air aloft has kept the clouds around and said warm layer will
persist into tonight. Thus clouds are expected to persist across
much of the area late this afternoon and tonight.

On Monday the initial low clouds will remain across the area before
being replaced by higher clouds from another storm system passing
south of the area. The far west and northwest areas may see some sun
by late morning or afternoon and thus allow temperatures to warm.
Otherwise expect daytime temperatures to average below normal.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 240 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Monday night through next sunday: active pattern setting up with
periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, above normal
precipitation is expected through the remainder of this month, along
with normal temperatures.

There will be a zonal flow with upper air disturbances being ejected
into the Midwest out of a deepening trough in the Pacific northwest.
Then later in the week and into next weekend the trough deepens/digs
into The Rockies. This sets up a southwest flow aloft with a heat
dome forming in the western portions of the Southern Plains. More
clusters of storms should form across the Midwest along an E-W
frontal boundary. This scenario is based on the European model (ecmwf) but the GFS is
much less amplified. Too early to tell rain amounts or severe
potential this far out but the overall synoptic pattern and it being
June (climatology) there is certainly the possibility for severe
weather and flash flooding. If heavy rain occurs then this may cause
rises on some of the area rivers. Confidence is low due to
considerable timing/amplitude differences regarding the upper trough.

Temperatures during this time frame will feature highs well in the
70s to lower 80s, with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Next weekend
high may reach into the lower to mid 80s.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 647 PM CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Low clouds and resulting MVFR conditions will continue to impact
the terminals this evening, then become more widespread with
deteriorating conditions later tonight. This evening, breaks in
the low clouds will result in periods of VFR conditions early.
However these are likely to fill back in with at least light fog
possible due to the lingering low level moist layer. This will
likely result in widespread IFR conditions after midnight through
sunrise. For now, fog has been downplayed, but there is at least a
low potential for dense fog, depending on trends this evening.
Monday, conditions are likely to improve to at least MVFR during
the morning and have optimistically outlooked VFR conditions as
ceilings may lift in the afternoon.


issued at 1055 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Rainfall of 1/2 to as much as 2 inches fell across much of the dvn
cwa yesterday. This has caused rises on the Rock River at Moline
and the Iowa river at Marengo. Flood warnings have been issued for
these two forecast points for minor flooding early this week.

On the Mississippi River and Des Moines River continue to show a
falling trend with several sites falling to below flood stage this
upcoming week. However, locally heavy rainfall can be expected
with several rounds of thunderstorms during the middle to end of
this upcoming work week.

While it is too early to determine rainfall amounts the synoptic
pattern suggests the potential for heavy rainfall which may cause
rises again on some of the rivers.


Dvn watches/warnings/advisories...


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