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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1029 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019

Discussion...
issued at 203 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019

A deepening warm sector underneath a building ridge over the central
Continental U.S. Will maintain hot and muggy conditions through the early to
mid-week, with a slight improvement expected by the late week.
Afternoon highs today through Wednesday will rise into the upper
80s to lower 90s, with heat index values near 95 degrees.

By Wednesday, a weakening shortwave trough will lift northeast into
the northern plains, while at the surface, an elongated cold front
will push southeast from southern Canada to southwestern Kansas. The
southern push of the boundary now looks to stall across southern
Iowa, thus minimizing any noticeable cooling trends by Wednesday and
Thursday. While the air mass looks to remain the same, cloud cover
and precip chances ahead of the boundary will at least take some
of the edge off the heat through the late week. Initial storm
chances will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday across northwest
Missouri, with additional storm chances possible further south in
the late Wednesday to Thursday time frame as the ridge continues
to break down. Overall mid to upper-level dynamics will be meager
with the mid-week storms, though moderate instability may support
deep updrafts capable of producing gusty winds as storms
potentially become water loaded.

More widespread storm chances are then possible by Saturday as a
more notable upper-level trough approaches the Central Plains with a
subsequent cold front expected to push through the area Saturday
night into Sunday. Better dynamics and stronger forcing with this
setup are possible and will bear watching for strong to severe
potential as the time approaches. Much cooler temps are then
likely on the back side of this cold front heading into the early
work week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1029 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019

VFR conditions will light southerly winds will prevail for the
next 24 hours.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

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